市场情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡企稳：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 0.43%, volume increased and positions decreased. The demand for rebar has a seasonal rebound, while the supply also increases. Under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the improvement of the fundamentals is limited, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue the low - level oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][39]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 0.65%, volume increased and positions were stable. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil is performing well, which improves the supply - demand pattern. However, the supply pressure remains, and there are concerns about demand. The fundamentals are unlikely to improve substantially, and the price of hot - rolled coil is under continuous pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. Subsequently, the trend will continue the pattern of finding the bottom through oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][39]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.39%, volume and positions expanded. At present, the supply of iron ore is at a high level, and industrial concerns remain. The demand for ore is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market are weakening, and the over - valued ore price continues to be under pressure. However, because the rigid demand is still at a high level, there is resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the ore price will continue the downward oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4][40]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th [6]. - In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [7]. - In September 2025, China's rebar production was 14.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; from January to September, the cumulative production was 143.387 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [8]. Spot Market - The table shows the spot quotes of black metals, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and the price differences of main varieties, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. Futures Market - The table presents the main contract futures prices, including the closing price, change rate, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and position difference of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore [12]. Related Charts - The report includes charts on steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory), and steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) [13][18][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 59,100 tons, and the inventory is relatively high. The demand has a seasonal rebound but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The fundamentals improvement is limited, and steel prices are still under pressure. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillation pattern [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has improved, but the supply pressure remains, and there are concerns about demand. The price is under continuous pressure. It is expected to continue the pattern of finding the bottom through oscillation [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The terminal consumption of ore has declined from a high level, and the supply pressure has increased. The high - valued ore price continues to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the downward oscillation pattern [40].