贵金属策略报告-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management should be done well, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be implemented. [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Gold Core Logic - Short - term risk aversion: Sino - US may meet, easing trade war risks; US economic stagflation risks increase, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. - Risk - aversion attributes: Trump cancelled his meeting with Putin, complaining that negotiations were at a deadlock; European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations; Trump said a 100% tariff on China was unsustainable. - Monetary attributes: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials might stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months; Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth might have turned negative in the past few months; the Fed's Beige Book showed that US economic activity had hardly changed recently, but there were signs of cooling consumption; the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - Commodity attributes: The CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4116.60 per ounce, down $21.90 (- 0.53%) from the previous day and $108.30 (- 2.56%) from the previous week; London gold closed at $4070.00 per ounce, down $99.60 (- 2.39%) from the previous day and $134.60 (- 3.20%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 10.28 yuan (- 1.08%) from the previous day and 24.14 yuan (- 2.50%) from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 940.14 yuan per gram, down 8.70 yuan (- 0.92%) from the previous day and 27.15 yuan (- 2.81%) from the previous week. - Other data: The gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.22, up 2.32 (2.79%) from the previous day and 5.26 (6.58%) from the previous week; the gold - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.22, down 0.13 (- 1.57%) from the previous day and 0.27 (- 3.21%) from the previous week; the gold - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 69.33, down 2.55 (- 3.54%) from the previous day and 3.14 (- 4.34%) from the previous week. [2] Futures Company Member Net Positions in Shanghai Gold - Among the top 10 net - long positions, the top 5 totaled 69,265.00, an increase of 1,459.00 (19.21%); the top 10 totaled 99,490.00, an increase of 369.00 (27.60%); the top 20 totaled 121,427.00, a decrease of 2,459.00 (33.68%). - Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,561.00, a decrease of 343.00 (3.48%); the top 10 totaled 16,710.00, a decrease of 773.00 (4.63%); the top 20 totaled 17,961.00, a decrease of 815.00 (4.98%). [3] Silver Core Logic The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. [5] Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.18 per ounce, up $0.02 (0.04%) from the previous day and down $4.35 (- 8.27%) from the previous week; London silver closed at $47.76 per ounce, down $2.19 (- 4.37%) from the previous day and $4.83 (- 9.18%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 11,467.00 yuan per kilogram, up 63.00 yuan (0.55%) from the previous day and down 550.00 yuan (- 4.58%) from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 11,463.00 yuan per kilogram, up 82.00 yuan (0.72%) from the previous day and down 518.00 yuan (- 4.32%) from the previous week. - Other data: The visible inventory totaled 42,134 tons, down 87 tons (- 0.21%) from the previous day and 670 tons (- 1.56%) from the previous week. [6] Futures Company Member Net Positions in Shanghai Silver - Among the top 10 net - long positions, the top 5 totaled 105,851.00, an increase of 7,921.00 (14.02%); the top 10 totaled 137,439.00, an increase of 8,513.00 (18.21%); the top 20 totaled 168,854.00, an increase of 5,725.00 (22.37%). - Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 35,243.00, an increase of 655.00 (4.67%); the top 10 totaled 53,998.00, an increase of 2,396.00 (7.15%); the top 20 totaled 72,007.00, an increase of 4,059.00 (9.54%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Federal Reserve Data - The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.15%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, up $55.81 billion (0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.77%, down 0.06 from the previous value. [8] Other Key Data - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.25, down 0.06 (- 2.60%) from the previous day and 0.09 (- 3.85%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.88, down 0.06 (- 0.06%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.51, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.01 (- 1.85%) from the previous week. [8] Inflation and Economic Data - US inflation data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30; PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74; core PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.91. - US economic growth data: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00, down 0.30 from the previous value; GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80, up 4.40 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10 from the previous value. [10] Other Data - Central bank gold reserves: China's is 2,303.52 tons, up 3.11 tons (0.14%); the US's is 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's is 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. - Geopolitical risk index is 250.95, up 96.88 (62.88%) from the previous value; VIX index is 18.47, down 0.13 (- 0.70%) from the previous day and 6.84 (- 27.02%) from the previous week; CRB commodity index is 297.93, up 2.52 (0.85%) from the previous day and 4.08 (1.39%) from the previous week; the offshore RMB is 7.1270, up 0.0002 (0.00%) from the previous value. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from October 2025 to September 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]