Report Information - Report Name: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428) - Assistant Analyst: Gu Hengye (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03143348) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The dual increase in the prices of crude oil and coking coal has driven the overall recovery of the chemical industry. Geopolitical issues have led to a rebound in oil prices, and coking coal prices have risen due to supply - side factors. The PE market currently shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but the overall fundamental driving force is relatively limited [3] Summary by Directory Polyethylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6800 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.23% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 4.9% [2] Polyethylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the inventory of finished products is high and there are concerns about falling plastic prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short plastic futures (L2601) to lock in profits and offset production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (L2601C7200) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 60 [2] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be based on order situations, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising polyethylene prices, enterprises can buy plastic futures (L2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 6800 - 6850 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (L2601P6800) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and if the polyethylene price falls, they can lock in the spot purchase price, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 50 [2] Core Contradictions Cost Side - Geopolitical issues, such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the upgraded sanctions on Russian oil companies, have led to a significant increase in oil prices. Coking coal prices have also risen strongly due to supply - side factors such as production cuts in some regions and reduced customs clearance of Mongolian coal [3] Supply - Demand Side - On the supply side, Baofeng's PE full - density unit 2 (550,000 tons) has stopped due to upstream compressor maintenance, while Zhenhai's HDPE unit (300,000 tons) is expected to start two weeks earlier. Additionally, ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE unit and two units of Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to start between October and November, increasing the supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with an increasing trend in both the operating rate and orders. The rebound in the futures market has also stimulated downstream speculative restocking, resulting in a relatively good overall trading volume [3] Bullish Factors - The downstream demand is still in the peak season, with an increasing trend in the operating rate and orders of the agricultural film industry. Baofeng's upstream unit maintenance has led to the shutdown of the full - density unit 2 (550,000 tons), which is expected to last for 10 days [4] Bearish Factors - ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE new unit is expected to be put into production soon. Zhenhai Refining's 3 - line HDPE unit is expected to start two weeks earlier. The current LLDPE inventory is at a high level, and the inventory reduction speed during the peak season is slower than expected. PE imports are expected to increase from October to November [5][7] Polyethylene Daily Report Table - Futures Prices and Spreads: The plastic main basis decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts all increased. The L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 spreads also changed compared to the previous day and week. The L - P spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [7] - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all increased. The East - North China and East - South China spreads also changed compared to the previous day and week [7] - Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE films, as well as the spread between LDPE film and LLDPE film, all decreased compared to the previous day and week [7] - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits: The Brent crude oil price remained unchanged compared to the previous day and increased by 1.44 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. The US ethane price remained unchanged compared to the previous day and increased by 0.0027 US dollars/gallon compared to the previous week. The Northwest coal price increased by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and remained unchanged compared to the previous week. The East China methanol price decreased by 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The processing profits of various raw materials for PE also changed compared to the previous day and week [7]
聚乙烯风险管理日报-20251023
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-23 11:59