GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-23 12:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][53]. Core Insights - The land market in the first three quarters of 2025 shows a trend of reduced volume but improved quality, with a slight cooling in the third quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to be a peak period for land sales, warranting attention to the performance of various cities in terms of volume and price [2][3]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in major cities has increased, indicating a heightened focus on core urban areas. The average premium rate for sample cities in the first three quarters of 2025 was 5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [30][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Land Market Overview - The land market in the first three quarters of 2025 experienced a contraction in transaction volume, with a total land supply of 63,680 million square meters, down 15.5% year-on-year. The transaction area was 47,827 million square meters, a decrease of 8.4%, while the transaction amount increased by 6.7% to 15,746 billion yuan, driven by a 17.9% rise in average transaction price to 3,292 yuan per square meter [7][8][23]. 2. Premium Rates and Market Focus - The premium rates for land transactions in first-tier cities remain relatively high, with an average of 12.9%, reflecting a 7.3 percentage point increase year-on-year. Cities like Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Chengdu maintain high premium rates, with Hangzhou at 29.2% [30][38]. 3. Investment Strategies of Key Real Estate Companies - In the first three quarters of 2025, ten real estate companies achieved over 10 billion yuan in land acquisition, with nine being state-owned enterprises. The report highlights that the land acquisition intensity of key companies has increased, with the average acquisition intensity for major firms rising [44][49]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "Overweight" rating and suggests specific stocks for investment, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development among others [53][55].