Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-23 13:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - Recent nationwide temperature drops have boosted sales, particularly for winter apparel, with significant growth in sales of women's down jackets and men's vests during the pre-sale period [8] - The company expects steady growth in performance, maintaining a double-digit growth guidance for the year, with a projected revenue increase of 10% and profit growth exceeding revenue growth [8] - The company has a consistent dividend payout ratio above 80%, with an estimated dividend yield of around 6% for FY26 [8] - The successful debut of the "Master Puff" collection at Paris Fashion Week enhances the company's global brand influence [8] - The appointment of renowned designer Kim Jones is expected to elevate product quality and drive high-end market penetration [8] - The company has established a strong consumer recognition in the down jacket sector and is actively expanding into outdoor and functional apparel markets [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 23,214 million RMB - FY2025: 25,902 million RMB - FY2026E: 28,465 million RMB - FY2027E: 31,272 million RMB - FY2028E: 34,210 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 38% for FY2024, 12% for FY2025, and gradually decreasing to 9% by FY2028 [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2024: 3,074 million RMB - FY2025: 3,514 million RMB - FY2026E: 3,899 million RMB - FY2027E: 4,340 million RMB - FY2028E: 4,754 million RMB - The projected net profit growth rates are 44% for FY2024, 14% for FY2025, and stabilizing around 10% by FY2028 [6][18]