迈入中等发达国家水平的关键时期：——二十届四中全会公报解读

Economic Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant achievements in high-quality development and technological self-reliance, with a target for per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-income countries by 2035[3] - The plan emphasizes the importance of continuous efforts and reforms to achieve socialist modernization, marking the "15th Five-Year" period as crucial for foundational work[3] Supply-Side Strategies - Focus on building a modern industrial system to strengthen the real economy, with an emphasis on intelligent, green, and integrated development[4] - The plan aims to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, avoiding premature deindustrialization, and encourages breakthroughs in key technological areas to enhance self-innovation capabilities[4] Demand-Side Strategies - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, promoting effective interaction between supply and demand, and enhancing the domestic market's internal dynamics[4] - The plan calls for a strong domestic market and high-level opening up to create a new development pattern that promotes mutual reinforcement between domestic and international cycles[4] Social Welfare and Housing - The plan highlights the need to enhance social welfare and promote common prosperity, with a focus on equal access to basic public services and high-quality development in the real estate sector[5] - Future policies may shift local fiscal spending from investment to public services, indicating a long-term view of the real estate market as a foundational industry for people's livelihoods[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the expansion of fiscal policies and the extent of monetary policy easing not meeting expectations[6]