聚丙烯风险管理日报-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Cost - end factors, such as geopolitical issues and supply - side changes in crude oil and coking coal, drive the overall recovery of the chemical industry. The short - term supply pressure of PP is relieved due to non - planned shutdowns of some devices, but the demand side has limited support. The short - term fundamental changes support the narrowing of the L - P spread [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6500 - 7000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.63%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 19.1% [2] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2601 futures (25%, entry range 6900 - 7000) to lock in profits and sell PP2601C6900 call options (50%, entry range 20 - 40) to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2601 futures (50%, entry range 6500 - 6550) to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell PP2601P6500 put options (75%, entry range 30 - 50) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - Cost - end: Geopolitical issues and sanctions lead to a sharp rise in oil prices. Coking coal shows a strong upward trend due to supply - side news. These factors drive the recovery of the chemical industry [3] - Supply - demand end: Supply pressure of PP is relieved in the short term due to non - planned shutdowns of some devices, resulting in an 80,000 - ton/month supply reduction. However, the demand side has limited support, showing a "weak peak season" situation. The improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is slightly better than that of PE, supporting the narrowing of the L - P spread [3] Bullish Interpretations - Inner Mongolia Baofeng shuts down a 500,000 - ton PP production line for 10 days due to upstream compressor maintenance, and Daxie Petrochemical shuts down two 900,000 - ton production lines in Phase II for half a month due to upstream technological transformation [4] Bearish Interpretations - Propane CP prices dropped during the National Day, and PDH profits expanded, causing PP to lose cost support. The peak - season demand recovers slowly, and the export is seasonally weak with the export window closed. Guangxi Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton device will start operation soon [6] Polypropylene Daily Report Table - Futures Prices and Spreads: The main polypropylene basis, PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts, and some spreads have changed compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the PP01 contract increased by 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7] - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China, as well as regional spreads, have changed. For example, the East China - North China spread increased by 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7] - Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads: Spreads between non - standard and standard products, such as the spread between homopolymer injection molding and drawing, have decreased [7] - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits: Upstream product prices, such as Brent crude oil and US propane, and processing profits of different PP production methods have changed. For example, oil - based PP profit increased by 775.99 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7]