二十届四中全会会议精神学习:更加自信,迎接蝶变
Changjiang Securities·2025-10-23 15:29

Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a continuation under the framework of the 2035 vision, aiming for "basic realization of socialist modernization" by 2035[3] - Despite increasing external risks, the central government's confidence in achieving economic goals remains strong, emphasizing the importance of productivity and innovation[3][8] - The upcoming "Proposal" is expected to reveal more detailed industrial support policies, indicating a clear direction for the next five years[3][7] Supply-Side Focus - Upgrading industrial construction is prioritized, with a growing emphasis on technological innovation, moving from a secondary to a primary focus in the planning[8][17] - The goal of significantly improving the level of technological self-reliance has been highlighted, reflecting the central government's commitment to innovation-driven development[8][17] Demand-Side Strategy - Domestic consumption is set to play a more prominent role, with expectations that consumption will contribute approximately 63% to economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period[19] - The importance of improving people's livelihoods and promoting inclusive growth has been elevated, with policies aimed at enhancing social security and housing policies[8][19] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with the implementation of policies due to external environmental factors, which may affect the pace of policy execution[7][23] - More details on the "15th Five-Year Plan" are anticipated, with the full planning outline expected to be completed by the end of the year[23]