浙商证券浙商早知道-20251024

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.3%. The STAR Market 50 declined by 0.3%, and the CSI 1000 fell by 0.1%. The ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.1%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors included coal (+1.8%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.5%), social services (+1.1%), non-ferrous metals (+1.0%), and non-bank financials (+1.0%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-1.5%), real estate (-1.0%), building materials (-0.9%), electronics (-0.7%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.6%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,643.9 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 5.34 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights - In the bond market, the report emphasizes maintaining a bullish stance during the current bull market, suggesting that when the underlying logic of the main sectors remains unchanged, the market shows strong sustainability and significant excess returns [5] - The report indicates that the technology sector is experiencing a phase of adjustment, while the fixed income perspective remains optimistic about equities [5] - The driving factors for the market include the unchanged underlying logic of the technology sector, insufficient improvement in the economic fundamentals, tightening domestic liquidity, and unexpected overseas risk events [5][6] - The report outlines an asset hierarchy during the bond market adjustment period, ranking them as follows: government bonds > certificates of deposit > local government bonds > perpetual bonds from banks > secondary capital bonds from banks [6][8] - It suggests that low-grade local government bonds may exhibit resilience beyond their credit ratings during liquidity-driven adjustments, and recommends a coupon strategy under liquidity pressure [6][8]