中国期货每日简报-20251024

1. Report Summary - The report provides an overview of China's futures market on October 23, 2025, including price movements of equity indices, CGB futures, and commodities. It also offers comments on lithium carbonate, lead, and RBD palm olein, and covers recent China news [2][4]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Overall Market - On October 23, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Most commodities rose, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [2][4][11]. 2.2 Commodity Futures - Top three gainers: coking coal (up 5.1% with 14.4% MoM open interest increase), coke (up 4.2% with 3.3% MoM open interest increase), and lithium carbonate (up 4.2% with 18.7% MoM open interest increase) [12]. - Top three decliners: rapeseed (down 1.2% with 12.1% MoM open interest decrease), RBD palm olein (down 1.0% with 3.3% MoM open interest increase), and rapeseed oil (down 0.8% with 1.0% MoM open interest decrease) [13]. 2.3 Financial Futures - Equity indices rose, with IH increasing by 0.6%. CGB futures fell, with TL decreasing by 0.3% [14]. 3. Daily Raise and Drop Analysis 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On October 23, it increased by 4.2% to 79940 yuan/ton. Short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, while long - term oversupply expectations suppress prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply is increasing slightly, demand is strong, social inventories are being destocked, and warehouse receipts have decreased [19][20][22]. 3.2 Lead - On October 23, it increased by 2.7% to 17615 yuan/ton. Supply growth is slightly lower than expected due to factors like environmental controls and smelter maintenance. Demand still has resilience, but exports are under pressure. Social inventories are declining, and spot supply is tight. Prices are expected to be volatile with an upward trend in the short term [26][29][32]. 3.3 RBD Palm Olein - On October 23, it decreased by 1.0% to 9132 yuan/ton. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory, and India's vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The macro - environment includes the US government shutdown, China - US trade negotiations, Fed rate - cut expectations, and potential loose fiscal policy in Japan [37][38][40]. 4. China News 4.1 Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee - Held from October 20 - 23, 2025, in Beijing. The session proposed main goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan, including promoting high - level self - reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and boosting consumption and investment [44][45][47]. 4.2 China - US Economic and Trade Consultations - From October 24 - 27, 2025, in Malaysia. Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to consult on important issues in China - US economic and trade relations [46][47]. 4.3 EU Sanctions on Chinese Companies - On October 23, the Foreign Ministry expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition to EU sanctions on 12 Chinese companies, emphasizing China's neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis and commitment to safeguarding its rights [46][47].