贵属策略报：?内贵?属价格反弹，?度级别预计呈现震荡整理

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bottom of precious metals may be confirmed, and they are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the long - term price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [1][3]. - The price of precious metals rebounded slightly on Thursday after the decline gradually slowed down. The U.S. government shutdown continued, overseas was still in a data vacuum period, and the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were calm [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - U.S. President Trump will make a statement in Washington at 3 p.m. local time and will visit Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will accompany Trump to Japan and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [2]. - During the federal government shutdown, the U.S. government's national debt scale exceeded $38 trillion on Wednesday for the first time in history. The debt has been growing rapidly in the past decade due to factors like population aging and increased interest payments [2]. - The release of the U.S. initial jobless claims data originally scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on October 23 was postponed due to the government shutdown [2]. Price Logic - In the short - term, the precious metals are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. In the month, attention should be paid to the Sino - U.S. meeting around the APEC meeting. In the fourth quarter, focus on the Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year, but the 2026 interest rate cut expectation has not been reflected. Pay attention to the game around the December FOMC meeting [3]. - Personnel changes in the Fed within 1 - 2 quarters are an important variable. After Thanksgiving, the nomination of the new Fed chairman is expected to be confirmed, which may bring greater long - term interest rate imagination [3]. - Pay attention to the potential impact of the right - wing tendency after Koike Sanae is elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan [3]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The contraction of the U.S. dollar credit is the core foundation. In the long - run, the price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [3]. - This week, the price range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between $3,900 and $4,400 per ounce, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively [43]. - The precious metals index on October 23, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day decline of 5.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.32%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.27% [44].