现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long run, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, with a possible rise in the price center. The high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, with a slight reduction in warehouse receipts, it continues to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - Information Analysis: As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In September, the export volume was 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the supply in the Northwest continues to increase, while the dry season in the Southwest is approaching, with some silicon plants reducing production. On the demand side, the consumption of industrial silicon has rebounded due to the resumption of production of some polysilicon enterprises in October, but is expected to decline slightly in November. The silicone DMC market is stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry is limited. The continuous depletion of industrial silicon warehouse receipts supports the futures price [6]. - Outlook: With a relatively loose supply pattern, the silicon price is under pressure. Affected by coal prices, the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Viewpoint: Warehouse receipts are slightly depleted, and polysilicon continues to fluctuate [7]. - Information Analysis: As of September 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September, the export volume was 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. The import volume in September was about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the import volume was 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26%. Some bases in the Southwest are expected to stop production in late October - early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [7]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the production in August - September has recovered to over 130,000 tons, expected to remain high in October and decline in November. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first half of the year was high, but the demand in the second half of the year is expected to weaken. There is still pressure on the current supply - demand of polysilicon, but there are policy expectations, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy can boost the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand is poor, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - Information Analysis: On October 23, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.66% to 79,940 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 72,329 lots to 815,338 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 74,800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 72,550 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts decreased by 260 lots to 28,759 lots [9][10]. - Main Logic: The current market has strong supply and demand. The supply is expected to reach 90,000 tons in October. The apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong. The social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The significant reduction in warehouse receipts should be watched out for. The price has strengthened under the situation of strong supply and demand [10]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the long - term oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. 3.2 Market Monitoring - Not provided in the content