宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年10月24日）-20251024

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - biased strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is shock - biased strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly shock - based. The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and sorted out yesterday and closed slightly lower. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia led to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, so a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the long - term. However, due to the strong resilience of the macro - economy, there is a lack of necessity for an overall interest rate cut in the short - term, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is shock - biased strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short - and long - term [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is shock - biased strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The short - term treasury bond futures are mainly in shock. The driving factors include the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the problem of insufficient domestic demand, and the strong resilience of the macro - economy [5].