宝城期货甲醇早报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the methanol 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Friday. Recently, due to the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the positive policies released by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the macro - sentiment has improved. With the significant strengthening of domestic coal futures prices, the cost - driven logic of methanol is prominent, offsetting the bearish trend created by the weak supply - demand structure. The improvement of macro factors and the strengthening of cost factors help repair the methanol valuation. On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the futures price slightly rising 0.40% to 2285 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Other Key Points - Time Cycle Definition: Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For the intraday view, there are distinctions of "volatile and strong" or "volatile and weak", while short - term and medium - term views do not make such distinctions [1]. - Price Fluctuation Criteria: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is "volatile and weak", an increase of 0 - 1% is "volatile and strong", and an increase of more than 1% is considered a rise [2][3]. - Methanol Market Outlook: The short - term view of methanol is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile and weak", the intraday view is "volatile and strong", and the reference view is "strong operation" [1][5].