Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged; in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly [3] - For iron ore, the demand weakens after the decline of hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory puts pressure on prices. The market is in a state of weak reality and macro - expectation tug - of - war, with prices oscillating [6] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher than short - selling [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, following the commodity environment, and the trend of coking coal futures has a certain driving effect on its price [14] - For polysilicon, the current price fluctuation is regarded as a phased correction within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [16] - For glass, in the short - term, without external factors, the market is expected to remain weak [19] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3047 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 129,796 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.995833 million lots, down 10,093 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3110 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, both with no change [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,657 tons, down 2375 tons. The main contract position was 1.509998 million lots, up 6767 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance; hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly relieved. The steel mill profitability rate declined significantly recently, and the hot metal production decreased significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.39% (+3.00), and the position changed by +2978 lots to 561,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 941,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.33 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.65% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both increased, the shipment of FMG was strong, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month [6] - Demand: The average daily hot metal production in the latest period was 239.9 tons, falling below 240 tons, mainly affected by the weak steel price, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and the environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production [6] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 23, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.14% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 92 yuan/ton [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed up 0.65% at 5574 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 76 yuan/ton [9] Strategy Views - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has put pressure on commodities. Most of the current situation has been priced in, and subsequent macro - level factors may be more important [10] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2511) closed at 8705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.59% (+220). The weighted contract position changed by +103 lots to 438,582 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 595 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 145 yuan/ton [13] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 50760 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.89% (+450). The weighted contract position changed by - 3824 lots to 243,675 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.98 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 2220 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", and the supply pressure still exists. The demand is mainly restricted by supply. The cost provides support for the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [14] - Polysilicon: The over - expected increase in silicon material production in October and the decrease in downstream silicon wafer production lead to continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The supply pressure will be relieved if the leading enterprises start maintenance at the end of the month. The current price fluctuation is a phased correction [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1108 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+14). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1140 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1150 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million boxes, up 2.3374 million boxes (+3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12,367 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 6711 lots [18] - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (+12). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1185 yuan, up 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (+3.64%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 934,500 tons, down 62,000 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 767,600 tons, up 78,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3131 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4848 lots [20] Strategy Views - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, the downstream procurement rhythm slows down further, and the supply rebounds. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short - term, and the market is expected to remain weak [19] - Soda ash: The industry shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21]
黑色建材日报-20251024
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-24 01:11