Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the short - term has certain support due to large domestic supply pressure, high soybean inventory, no improvement in US soybean imports, and the arrival of the soybean meal destocking season. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. It may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to wait and see for clearer production signals [6][8]. - For sugar, with the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere and high production in Brazil's central - southern region, the overall view is bearish, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices drives the futures price to rebound, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short term [13][14]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound slightly but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [16][18]. - For pigs, the market may be in a strong - side shock in the short term, but in the medium - term, considering the theoretical increase in supply, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to sell [20][21]. Summary by Categories Soybeans and Protein Meals - Market Information: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean exports are expected to improve due to negotiations with India and Japan. Trump mentioned soybeans as a key topic in China - US negotiations. On Thursday, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan, with the price in East China at around 2,890 yuan/ton. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week. Port soybean inventories began to decline, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories continued to decrease. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil - mill soybean crushing volume to be 2.3335 million tons this week, up from 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7%, higher than last week (11.1%) but lower than the five - year average (27.7%) [2]. - Strategy: The short - term has certain support, but in the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Oils - Market Information: From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month, and the production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% compared to the same period last month. The IGC predicts that the global soybean production in 2025/26 will decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons, and the ending inventory will decrease by 4 million tons to 79 million tons. On Thursday, domestic oils declined, pressured by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia. The domestic spot basis was stable at a low level [6]. - Strategy: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. It may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to wait and see for clearer production signals [8]. Sugar - Market Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan, it remained unchanged. The mainstream price of processed sugar decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. Datagro estimates that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the next season will reach 43.2 million tons, an increase of 1.78 million tons compared to the current season. Brazil's national oil company lowered the gasoline price by 4.9%. Brazil exported 2.334 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of October, a 6% increase compared to the daily average export volume in October last year [10]. - Strategy: With the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere and high production in Brazil's central - southern region, the overall view is bearish, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - Market Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The spot price of cotton also rose slightly. On October 22, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton continued to rise [13]. - Strategy: Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices drives the futures price to rebound, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short term [14]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight increase. The supply was normal, the market sales were average, and the downstream procurement was stable. It is expected that most egg prices will remain stable, and a few may rise [16]. - Strategy: The spot price may rebound slightly but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend of rising, falling, and remaining stable. The enthusiasm of farmers for selling pigs was average, and the demand side was affected by factors such as slaughterhouses reducing production to cut losses and the decline in the enthusiasm for secondary fattening. It is expected that the pig price in the north may decline slightly, and in the south, it will stop rising and stabilize [20]. - Strategy: The market may be in a strong - side shock in the short term, but in the medium - term, considering the theoretical increase in supply, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to sell [21].
五矿期货农产品早报-20251024
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-24 01:20