氯碱日报：PVC开工下降，库存难去-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC: The PVC market shows a pattern of abundant supply and high inventory. Although the downstream demand has recovered to the pre - holiday level and the export has increased, factors such as high - level futures warehouse receipts and potential impacts from anti - dumping investigations will continue to suppress the PVC futures price. Attention should be paid to subsequent anti - involution policies and the impact of the Politburo meeting [3] - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable, with a slight increase in Jiangsu due to end - of - month maintenance. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand shows mixed signals. The cost support still exists, but there are uncertainties in the alumina production capacity launch and downstream inventory - building rhythms [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 PVC - Futures Prices and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4730 yuan/ton (+11). The East China basis is - 90 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 20 yuan/ton (-1) [1] - Spot Prices: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4710 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream Production Profits: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 713 yuan/ton (-91), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 553 yuan/ton (-14), and the PVC export profit is - 2.7 US dollars/ton (-1.9) [1] - Inventory and Capacity Utilization: The in - factory PVC inventory is 36.0 tons (-2.3), the social PVC inventory is 55.6 tons (-0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC capacity utilization rate is 71.65% (-3.08%), the ethylene - based PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.56% (+2.46%), and the overall PVC capacity utilization rate is 73.74% (-1.40%) [1] - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 55.6 tons (-2.8) [1] 3.1.2 Caustic Soda - Futures Prices and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2385 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 178 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - Spot Prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1280 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream Production Profits: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 1028.3 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 216.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1191.25 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and Capacity Utilization: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.43 tons (+1.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 80.80% (-0.60%) [2] - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The alumina capacity utilization rate is 86.22% (-0.10%), the printing and dyeing capacity utilization rate in East China is 67.31% (+0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate is 88.61% (+0.00%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PVC - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed production this week, with a decrease in loss volume but still at a high level. Newly - added production capacities are gradually reaching mass production, and the supply remains abundant [3] - Demand: The downstream capacity utilization has generally recovered to the pre - holiday level. The point - price transactions have improved after the price dropped to a low level. The social inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute inventory level is still high [3] - Export: In September, PVC exports reached 34.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative exports reached 292.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.58%. However, the anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers in India may affect PVC product exports [3] - Market Pressure: The high - level PVC futures warehouse receipts continue to suppress the PVC futures price [3] 3.2.2 Caustic Soda - Supply: The 300,000 - ton new production capacity of Tianjin Bohua has reached full production. Many maintenance enterprises have resumed production this week, and the supply is expected to increase slightly [3] - Demand: Orders from Shandong alumina are stable, but the production reduction expectation of alumina plants has increased. The non - aluminum end is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [3] - Inventory: The inventory of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has decreased, while the inventory of 50% caustic soda has increased. The inventory in Jiangsu has increased [3] - Cost: The electricity price in Shandong has increased in October, and the price of liquid chlorine has risen. The cost support still exists, but the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] 3.3 Strategies 3.3.1 PVC - Single - side Trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - Inter - delivery Spread Trading: Go for a reverse spread for V01 - 05 when the spread is high [4] - Inter - commodity Spread Trading: No trading strategy [4] 3.3.2 Caustic Soda - Single - side Trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Inter - delivery Spread Trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Inter - commodity Spread Trading: No trading strategy [5]