原油日报：美国加大俄罗斯石油制裁，油价大幅反弹-20251024

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.29 to $61.79 per barrel, a gain of 5.62%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose $3.40 to $65.99 per barrel, a gain of 5.43%. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 3.48% at 470 yuan per barrel [1] - After the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, the supply of Russian oil to major Indian refiners is expected to drop to near zero. India is the largest buyer of Russian oil [1] - As of the week ending October 17, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 8.31388 billion barrels, down 142,000 barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 4.22824 billion barrels, down 961,000 barrels from the previous week. India shows no sign of stopping importing Russian oil [1] - Sinopec's Qiluoye 1 well in the Sichuan Basin tested high - yield shale oil and gas flows, with a daily output of 38.64 cubic meters of shale oil and 10,000 cubic meters of natural gas, marking a new shale oil reserve area with a resource volume of over 100 million tons in the Sichuan Basin [1] - The Ukrainian military attacked Russia's Ryazan refinery at night [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - The US imposed sanctions on Russian oil and Lukoil, and the EU launched the 19th round of sanctions. The market reaction was large because it's Trump's first sanctions on the Russian oil industry and the two sanctioned companies have large export volumes. The total seaborne exports are about 2 million barrels per day (nearly 60%), and pipeline oil exports are 800,000 barrels per day [2] - The market expects Russian oil buyers to cut imports and turn to compliant oil. The trading of Russian oil will become more difficult, and the number of buyers will be more limited. In the future, Russian oil trading may follow the Iranian model. India may cut Russian oil purchases, but the quantity and rhythm are unclear. The discount of Russian oil will widen, and other buyers may increase purchases. The reduction of total Russian oil exports remains to be seen [2] - The game between sanctions and counter - sanctions will continue [2] Group 3: Strategy - The oil price fluctuates greatly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and make a short - position allocation in the medium term [3] Group 4: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report