化工日报：成本端反弹，降温下需求好转-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side has rebounded, and terminal demand has shown marginal improvement under the cooling weather. However, the contradiction of crude oil supply surplus has emerged, and the macro - situation remains unclear. The investment ratings for PX, TA, PF, and PR are neutral. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and geopolitical changes [1][2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - TA's main contract spot basis is - 83 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 5 yuan/ton), and relevant figures for PX, PTA, and short - fiber basis are presented in figures such as Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3, and Figure 4 [3][10][11][14] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PXN was 247 dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 2.50 dollars/ton) in the previous trading session. PTA's spot processing fee is 79 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 26 yuan/ton), and the processing fees of relevant upstream products are also presented in figures like Figure 5, Figure 6, Figure 7, and Figure 8 [2][3][17][20] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures such as Figure 9, Figure 10, and Figure 11 show the international spreads and import - export profits of products like toluene and PTA [25][27] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Recently, China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. The PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan is also presented in figures such as Figure 12, Figure 13, Figure 14, Figure 15, and Figure 16 [2][28][31][33] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The weekly social inventory of PTA and the monthly social inventory of PX are presented in Figure 17 and Figure 18. The warehouse receipts of PTA, PX, and PF are also presented in relevant figures [36][39][40] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (with a month - on - month change of - 0.1%). The production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, as well as the loads of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips are presented in figures such as Figure 23, Figure 24, Figure 25, Figure 26, Figure 27, and Figure 28 [3][49][51][53] 7. PF Detailed Data - PF's spot production profit is 254 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 43 yuan/ton). Figures such as Figure 37, Figure 38, Figure 39, and Figure 40 show the load, inventory, and other data of PF [4][73][74] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR's bottle - chip spot processing fee is 484 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 61 yuan/ton). Figures such as Figure 49, Figure 50, Figure 51, and Figure 52 show the load, inventory, and processing fees of PR [4][88][95]