宝城期货原油早报-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term view of oscillation, a medium - term view of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday view of oscillation and strengthening [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Movement and Reference Views - The opening price and closing price calculation methods for varieties with and without night trading are specified [2] - Criteria for defining rising, falling, oscillating strongly, and oscillating weakly are provided [3] - Oscillation strength or weakness is only applicable to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [4] - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating weakly, and the reference view is strongly running. The 2512 contract of domestic crude oil futures closed up 3.48% to 469.8 yuan/barrel on Thursday night and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5] 3.2 Driving Logic - Geopolitical premiums are prominent as the US President Trump cancelled the recent meeting plan between the US and Russian leaders, the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers, and South American geopolitical risks emerged. The supply - side expectations are also disturbed, giving support to the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures [5] - The current supply - demand situation of the crude oil market is weak. Supply surplus pressure is increasing, demand has entered a seasonal off - peak, and the crude oil inventory accumulation cycle has arrived [5]