山金期货黑色板块日报-20251024

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Views - For the steel sector, although the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded this week, it remains weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the decline in total inventory is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is now much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the high iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: This week's data shows that the apparent demand for rebar continues to rebound but is weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the total inventory decline is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K-line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Short positions can be held lightly, and profits should be taken in a timely manner when the price drops [2]. - Data Summary: - Prices: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day and 0.72% from last week [3]. - Production: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 207.07 million tons, an increase of 5.91 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.94%. Hot-rolled coil production is 322.46 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 0.19% [3]. - Inventory: The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,099.7 million tons, a decrease of 26.14 million tons from last week, a decline of 2.32%. Rebar social inventory is 437.48 million tons, a decrease of 18.93 million tons from last week, a decline of 4.15%. Hot-rolled coil social inventory is 337.57 million tons, a decrease of 3.77 million tons from last week, a decline of 1.10% [3]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 892.73 million tons, an increase of 17.32 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.98%. Rebar apparent demand is 226.01 million tons, an increase of 6.26 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.85% [3]. II. Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: High iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment [5]. - Technical Analysis: The 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Short positions can be continued to be held [5]. - Data Summary: - Prices: Iron ore spot and futures prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 777 yuan/dry ton, up 0.39% from the previous day and 0.45% from last week [5]. - Shipments: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,729.5 million tons, an increase of 65.3 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 3.92%. Brazilian iron ore shipments are 749 million tons, an increase of 22.1 million tons from last week [5]. - Inventory: Port inventories are 14,278.27 million tons, an increase of 253.77 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.81%. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,291.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from last week, a decline of 0.03% [5]. III. Industry News - Coal: Mongolian coal imports have decreased significantly due to political struggles in Mongolia. On Wednesday, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 570, a decrease of 43.95% compared to the average daily number in October, and it is expected to gradually recover next week [6]. - Cement: In the fourth quarter, the intensity of staggered production in the cement industry has increased, and the monthly average kiln shutdown in some areas exceeds 20 days. Recently, cement prices in many places have shown an upward trend [6]. - Steel Inventory: In mid-October, the social inventory of steel products in 21 cities was 9.36 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.1%. The inventory fluctuated slightly [7]. - Coking Coal: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - Rebar: As of the week of October 23, rebar production increased from a decline, and the factory and social inventories decreased for two consecutive weeks, while the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks [7]. - Iron Ore Production: In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore output of Fortescue Metals Group was 50.8 million tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous quarter and an increase of 6% from the same period last year [8]. - Global Steel Production: In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 141.8 million tons. China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [8]. - Glass Inventory: As of October 23, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% from the previous period, an increase for three consecutive weeks after the festival, reaching a three-month high [8].