化工日报：主港库存下降，EG基差反弹-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. There is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to high supply, but the price has dropped to near the April low. With a modest improvement in demand, market sentiment has been boosted. Attention should be paid to issues such as ships involved in US - related matters and shipping fees. No recommendations were made for inter - period or inter - variety strategies [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures and spot markets: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4095 yuan/ton (a change of +44 yuan/ton or +1.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4186 yuan/ton (a change of +64 yuan/ton or +1.55% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton). Due to tight supply during the delivery period and the cancellation of the loading of some Iranian goods, the EG price increased, and the spot basis strengthened simultaneously [1] - Production profit: According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 5 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 632 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton) [1] - Inventory: According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons). As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons, 3 tons lower than on Monday of this week and 1 ton lower than on Thursday of last week [2] - Overall fundamental supply - demand logic: On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. More than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants are still in a state of shutdown or low - load operation. However, due to some ships being involved in US - related issues, the supply will be postponed in the short term. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream polyester market has moderately improved, which has a certain boosting effect on the overall sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4095 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China EG market was 4186 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 632 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific data was provided in the text, only the chart of the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR was mentioned [21] 3.4 Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - No specific data was provided in the text, only charts related to downstream production, sales, and operating rates such as filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, etc. were mentioned [22][25] 3.5 Inventory Data - According to different data sources, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China showed different trends. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons [2]