聚烯烃日报：油价大幅反弹，成本端持续提振-20251024

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - PE: Affected by geopolitics and macro - factors, international oil prices have rebounded strongly from a low level, enhancing cost support. However, the supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand follows up limitedly. Although the price has risen with cost support, the upside space is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - PP: Oil prices and propane prices have rebounded, increasing cost support. But the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly with large inventory de - stocking pressure. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L主力合约收盘价为6999元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6691元/吨（+72）。LL华北现货为6940元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6610元/吨（+50）。LL华北基差为 - 59元/吨（-3），LL华东基差为1元/吨（-23），PP华东基差为 - 81元/吨（-22） [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE开工率为81.5%（-0.3%），PP开工率为75.9%（-2.3%） [1]. - Production Profit: PE油制生产利润为404.0元/吨（-87.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 236.0元/吨（-87.8），PDH制PP生产利润为63.7元/吨（-104.3） [1]. - Import and Export: LL进口利润为 - 138.6元/吨（+8.8），PP进口利润为 - 367.2元/吨（+84.5），PP出口利润为 - 7.6美元/吨（-39.9） [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE下游农膜开工率为47.1%（+4.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.6%（+0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（+0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.4%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - PE: The cost support has increased, but the supply is expected to rise with limited downstream demand. The price has risen with cost support, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - PP: Cost support has strengthened, but the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see. - Inter - period: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread. - Inter - variety: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].