化工日报：下游轮胎开工率继续回升-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply of natural rubber is gradually increasing, but the demand remains strong, keeping the spot price firm and the basis in a strong position. The cost - end support for rubber is still strong. With the recovery of downstream开工率 and the resilience of exports, there is a certain rebound momentum in rubber prices. For BR, the supply may decrease due to increased upstream plant maintenance, and with the recovery of downstream demand, the price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,245 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. It was the first time in the same period of history that automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 695 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 345 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,915 yuan/ton (- 2,915.00), the NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (- 86.00); the price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (+100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,500 yuan/ton (+100) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 57.87 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 65.87% (+1.91%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 72.84% (+1.77%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 220 yuan/ton (- 70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,800 yuan/ton (+50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,914 yuan/ton (- 2) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.45% (- 1.37%) [6] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6]