国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251024

Report Overview - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [1][7][13][16][19] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall trend of the black - series commodities in the futures market is characterized by wide - range fluctuations. Different commodities have specific influencing factors, such as demand changes, cost fluctuations, and policy expectations [2][6][8][9][13][16][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - Fundamentals: The futures price of iron ore (12601) closed at 777.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.39%. The trading volume and open interest both increased. Among the spot prices, the prices of some imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%) and PB fines (61.5%) rose slightly, while some domestic ores remained stable. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4] - News: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [5] - Trend Intensity: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Trend: The apparent demand improved month - on - month, with wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - Fundamentals: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%. For hot - rolled coil (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and the apparent demand increased. In September 2025, the production of crude steel decreased year - on - year, while the production of steel products increased year - on - year [9][10][11] - News: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 23, the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.62 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.41 tons, and the apparent demand increased [10] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend: The cost bottom has risen, with wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - Fundamentals: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were also different, and some steel mills' procurement prices changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all changed [13] - News: According to Iron Alloy Online, on October 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and specifications changed, and some steel mills determined their procurement prices [13] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Trend: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range fluctuations [2][16][17] - Fundamentals: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) both increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions changed, and the basis and spreads also changed [17] - News: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [17] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - Trend: Oscillating repeatedly [2][19] - Fundamentals: The data source is from Wood Union Data, Dongcai Choice, and Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, but no specific data is provided [20] - News: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [22] - Trend Intensity: 0 [22]