合成橡胶：宏观情绪支撑，中枢上移

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are under pressure, with supply growth outpacing demand. However, the overall static valuation of cis - butadiene rubber is currently moderately low, and there are many important macro - events recently, so the price is supported by macro - sentiment [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (11 contract), the daily closing price was 11,120 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 99,398 lots (up 19,944 lots), the open interest was 69,872 lots (down 2,100 lots), and the trading volume was 5.52049 billion yuan (up 1.14297 billion yuan) [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 20 yuan (down 70 yuan from the previous day), and the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 was 60 yuan (down 10 yuan) [1] - Spot Market: The prices of cis - butadiene in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) also remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 8,450 yuan/ton [1] - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 71.304% (unchanged), the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 11,358 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cis - butadiene profit was - 158 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 2. Industry News - As of October 22, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 24,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous period. Ship arrivals were limited, downstream raw material inventories were normally consumed, and the short - term tradable volume was limited, leading to the decline in port inventory. Merchants expect sufficient imports in October [2] - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The spot market was driven by the expectation of reduced trade frictions and the strengthening of natural rubber. The mainstream supply price rebounded, and low - price transactions improved. However, there were more overhauls of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and some sample production enterprises stocked up, resulting in an increase in the overall inventory of sample production enterprises and a decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises [2][3]