沥青：原油反弹，偏强运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to be relatively strong due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [1][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: - BU2511 closed at 3,351 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.75%, and 3,360 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.27%. Its trading volume was 23,261 lots (a decrease of 13,871 lots), and the open interest was 20,836 lots (a decrease of 6,357 lots). - BU2512 closed at 3,294 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.80%, and 3,313 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.58%. Its trading volume was 62,268 lots (an increase of 11,812 lots), and the open interest was 62,327 lots (a decrease of 14,053 lots). - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 12,420 lots with no change [1]. - Spot Market: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,470 yuan/ton with no change. - The refinery operating rate was 37.64% (an increase of 1.06% from the previous period), and the refinery inventory rate was 29.90% (an increase of 0.09% from the previous period) [1]. - Spreads: - The basis (Shandong - 11) was - 11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The Shandong - South China spread was - 60 (an increase of 10 from the previous day), and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Market Information - In November 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (a decrease rate of 18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (a decrease rate of 6.5%) [12]. - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% from October 16. The refinery warehouses in the Southwest and South China regions had obvious destocking. - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.394 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% from October 16. The social warehouses in Shandong and the Northwest regions had obvious destocking [12].