原油：不宜追多

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Crude oil: It is not advisable to chase long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil - WTI December crude oil futures rose $3.29 per barrel, or 5.62%, to $61.79 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures rose $3.40 per barrel, or 5.43%, to $65.99 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures rose 15.80 yuan per barrel, or 3.48%, to 469.80 yuan per barrel [2]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage: All light crude oil arbitrage windows are closed, indicating that it is economically unfeasible to import light crude oil from the Atlantic Basin (Middle East, West Africa, North Sea) to the U.S. Gulf for cracking. All heavy crude oil arbitrage windows are also generally closed, showing that heavy raw materials lack competitiveness compared to domestic crude oil (such as Mars) in the U.S. Gulf coking units [3]. - Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage: North Sea Forties crude oil and Algerian Saharan Blend crude oil show arbitrage opportunities, which may attract these crude oils to flow to the U.S. East Coast and replace some West African Bonny Light crude oil. The economy of Saharan Blend crude oil is significantly better than the benchmark, while other West African crude oils have poor economy [5]. - Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage: The arbitrage of U.S. Gulf crude oil (WTI MEH) to Europe is closed. However, U.S. shale oil (Eagle Ford), crude oil from the Caspian Sea (Azeri Light), and North Africa (Saharan Blend) have arbitrage space, indicating that these crude oils are more competitive in the Northwest European market. Eagle Ford is one of the few competitive U.S. crude oils, and the arbitrage space of Azeri Light crude oil is obvious. North African crude oil has arbitrage opportunities, and the economy of West African major light crude oil (Bonny Light) is close to equilibrium [7]. - Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage: All oil types' arbitrage relative to Urals crude oil is severely closed, indicating that Urals crude oil has a huge price advantage in the Mediterranean market, and crude oil from other sources is difficult to compete with it [8][9]. - Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage: Under the cracking configuration, all oil types' arbitrage against ESPO crude oil is closed, and ESPO has strong competitiveness in the Northeast Asian cracking market. Under the coking configuration, heavy/medium crude oil from the Americas (such as Napo, Mars) has open arbitrage windows, indicating that these crude oils are economically attractive to Chinese coking units. American Mars crude oil's arbitrage window is open [9]. 3.3 Key Market News - German Chancellor Merz: The German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft will be exempted from U.S. sanctions [12]. - Kuwaiti Oil Minister: OPEC is ready to increase oil production when demand increases. He warned that sanctions on the Russian energy industry will lead to higher oil prices. OPEC is ready to increase oil production if requested by U.S. President Trump [12]. - According to TASS: Russia may increase oil transportation from Kazakhstan to Germany [12]. - The Communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee: The plenary session put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, aiming to significantly increase China's economic strength, scientific and technological strength, national defense strength, comprehensive national strength, and international influence by 2035, and achieve a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries [12]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - Crude oil trend intensity: 0. The range of trend intensity values is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 indicates the most bearish, and 2 indicates the most bullish [11].