新能源及有色金属日报：库存小幅增加，短期工业硅多晶硅基本面一般-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently average. For industrial silicon, the inventory increased in October, but the supply - demand situation may improve after the southwest region starts to cut production at the end of October. For polysilicon, the overall inventory pressure is high, the production reduction in October was less than expected, and the production in November may decrease, but the downstream production schedule may also weaken [3][7]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment, policy - side news, and anti - involution policies. The market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to pay attention to risk management [3][7]. - The industrial silicon valuation is currently low. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the industrial silicon futures market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,505 yuan/ton and closed at 8,705 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (2.41%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 76,195 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,371 lots, a decrease of 367 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained slightly stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained slightly stable [1]. - As of October 23, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 559,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 123,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 436,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. Recently, some goods in Xinjiang warehouses have been transferred to Tianjin, resulting in significant regional inventory changes [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week. The mainstream transaction was concentrated at 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the average market price decreased week - on - week. However, the quoted prices of Shandong monomer enterprises and other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable compared to last week [2]. Strategy - The current fundamentals are average. The recent increase in the start - up rate in the Northwest and the fact that the southwest region has not reached the dry season have led to a large increase in inventory in October. The intraday rebound was mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, the southwest region will start to cut production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - side news [3]. - Short - term: Operate within a range. For contracts during the dry season, consider going long on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 showed a volatile trend, opening at 50,225 yuan/ton and closing at 50,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 45,407 lots (49,016 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 86,148 lots [4][5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.95 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.80 (with a month - on - month change of 1.98%), the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW (a month - on - month increase of 6.70%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,500 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.84%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.73GW (a month - on - month increase of 2.65%) [5]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and the output is expected to decline [5]. - The prices of battery cells and components remained stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large overall inventory pressure. The production reduction in October was less than expected, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month, but the downstream production schedule may also weaken. The warehouse receipts in November will face cancellation, which will have a certain impact on the futures market. The futures market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak market realities, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations [7]. - Short - term: Operate within a range. The main contract 11 will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the contract 12 is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].