新能源及有色金属日报：高铜价抑制下游采购，升贴水报价或承压-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Short put 2. Core View of the Report - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, the strengthening of precious metal prices, and frequent interference events in overseas mines, copper prices rose. However, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees at the LME conference, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are currently treated with a neutral approach, and the expected fluctuation range this week is between 81,600 yuan/ton and 87,100 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,280 yuan/ton and closed at 86,070 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,450 yuan/ton and closed at 86,730 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 30 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 10 yuan, a 20 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 85,290 to 85,690 yuan/ton. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement, and the willingness of holders to sell also declined. It is expected that although today's trading volume will increase month - on - month, if the copper price approaches 86,000 yuan/ton, the spot premium will still be under pressure [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Russian President Putin said that the US President decided to cancel or postpone the meeting, and Russia always advocates dialogue [3]. - Tariff: South Korea and the US are discussing a plan for South Korea to invest $200 billion in the US in stages over the next eight years to promote the current tariff negotiation agreement [3]. 3.2 Mine End - Shuikoushan Non - ferrous Kangjiawan Copper Mine introduced a mobile ball - control camera to solve the safety supervision problem in underground stope operations. Antofagasta's copper production in Q3 2025 was 161,800 tons, a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase, and the annual production is expected to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton guidance range [4]. 3.3 Smelting and Import - In September, China's copper scrap imports were 184,100 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 1.699 million tons, a 1.4% year - on - year increase. Due to increased customs inspections and high copper prices, it is predicted that imports in October may decline, and there is great pressure for an increase in Q4 [5]. 3.4 Consumption - In September, the national copper rod production was 1.0888 million tons, a 3.89% month - on - month increase. Electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod showed a differentiated trend. The electrolytic copper rod enterprise's operating rate in September was 70.3%, a 1.93 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 5.21 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The recycled copper rod enterprise's operating rate was 25.78%, a 2.55 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 3.1 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 136,925 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 505 tons to 36,048 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 181,600 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [7][8]. 3.6 Copper Price and Basis Data - The data shows the spot (premium/discount), premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper, Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, one month ago) [26][27][28][29].