资讯早班车-2025-10-24-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, aiming for significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial increase in scientific and technological self - reliance, and new breakthroughs in comprehensive deep - seated reforms [2][16]. - Amid global geopolitical risks, sanctions on Russia's oil industry are likely to reshape the global energy trade and drive up oil prices, while OPEC is prepared to increase production to fill potential shortages [9]. - The new policy - based financial tools have reached over half of the 500 billion yuan quota, expected to drive over 4 trillion yuan in total project investment and stimulate credit and social financing growth [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In September 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, slightly up from 49.4% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down from 50.3% [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% respectively, with M1 showing a significant increase compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year - on - year on a cumulative basis, while the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.46% [1]. - Exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee set long - term economic and social development goals, and China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations [2][16]. - Anshi China refuted the false remarks of the current management of Anshi Netherlands, and the Dutch Anshi may face delivery problems, affecting the global production of Japanese auto parts manufacturers [3]. - Multiple banks have raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation products to adapt to the rising gold prices [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Gold prices have corrected, leading investors to "buy the dip". JPMorgan Chase maintains a bullish view on gold, predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce in Q4 2026 [4][5]. - Russia's central bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves increased to $742.4 billion as of October 17 [5]. - London Metal Exchange inventories of most metals decreased, except for copper which increased slightly [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - China's Mineral Resources Appraisers Association joined the CRIRSCO on October 16 [7]. - Global crude steel production in September 2025 was 141.8 million tons, a 1.6% decrease from September 2024 [7]. - Coal transportation is expected to exceed 2024 levels due to the forecast of natural gas prices [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In September, total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a 4.5% year - on - year increase, with the second and third industries showing significant growth [8][9]. - US crude oil futures rose 5.56% due to sanctions on Russia's oil industry and a decrease in US EIA crude oil inventories [9]. - New sanctions on Russia's oil industry may reshape the global energy trade and drive up oil prices, and OPEC is prepared to increase production [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the second - round allocation of agricultural product export quotas in 2025 [12]. - US President Trump plans to increase tax - free beef imports from Argentina, which has caused controversy [12]. - The Starbucks Workers Union has initiated a strike authorization vote [13]. - On October 23, the price of New York Arabica coffee futures reached a record high [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 23, the central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [15]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a 120 - billion - yuan central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit auction on October 23 [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee emphasized building a strong domestic market and achieving the annual economic and social development goals [16][17]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations, and the APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting was held in South Korea [17][18]. - The EU's sanctions on Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions on Russia have been strongly opposed by China [18][19]. - The new policy - based financial tools have been put into use, and the scale of bank wealth management has increased [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market was weak and volatile, with mixed changes in bond yields and a decline in treasury bond futures [23]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell, and the money market remained stable [23][24]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 24 points to 7.1221 at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate rose 36 points [28]. - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies showed mixed trends [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Citic Construction Investment believes that the Five - Year Plan reflects evolving policy concepts, with more emphasis on quality and new productivity [30]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the supply of Chinese dollar - denominated bonds may increase in elasticity, and investors should pay attention to different types of bonds [30]. - CITIC Securities expects the RMB exchange rate to appreciate moderately in 2026 under normal export conditions [31]. - CITIC Securities analyzes that Japan's new Prime Minister's economic policies focus on curbing inflation and improving fiscal efficiency [31]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On Thursday, A - shares closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.09%, and the trading volume reached 1.66 trillion yuan [34]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.72%, ending a 5 - day losing streak, and the Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.345 billion [34].