金融期货早班车-20251024

Report Information - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Financial Research - Financial Futures Morning Report - Report Company: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, and note that the short - term market shows signs of cooling [3] - For bond futures, be bullish in the short - term as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is cost - effective; for the medium - to long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [4] Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 23, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3922.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to 13025.45 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.09% to 3062.16 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.3% to 1401.26 points. Market turnover was 1660.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+1.75%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.52%), and social services (+1.07%) led the gains; communication (-1.51%), real estate (-0.99%), and building materials (-0.91%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2991/143/2301 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 12.3 billion, - 13.5 billion, 0.9 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +1.9 billion, +3.8 billion, - 8.1 billion, and +2.4 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 129.1, 102.95, 25.54, and 3.1 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 10.52%, - 8.58%, - 3.3%, and - 0.61% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 36%, 23%, 27%, and 38% respectively [3] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 23, the bond market pulled back. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.07%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.34% [3] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.002, and an IRR of 1.41%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.015, and an IRR of 1.52%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +1.1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.024, and an IRR of 1.26%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.63% [4] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 212.5 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 236 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 23.5 billion yuan [4] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [11]