东吴证券晨会纪要-20251024

Macro Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" may not set a quantitative growth target for the five years, but annual targets will still be established, with a nominal GDP growth rate of no less than 5.5% expected during this period [1][9][10] - The plan emphasizes significant improvements in technological self-reliance and strength, with six key areas of focus: economic development, reform and opening up, cultural construction, ecological civilization, social welfare, and national governance [1][9][10] - The order of the 12 key tasks has slightly changed, with modern industrial systems, opening up, and social welfare prioritized, while green development is slightly lower in priority compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][9][10] Fixed Income - The report highlights the potential for arbitrage opportunities in the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, particularly for bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or higher, and emphasizes the importance of bond size and issuer type in selection [2][12][13] - The ETF is likely to favor bonds from central state-owned enterprises and traditional pillar industries, while also considering emerging sectors like materials and energy [2][12][13] - The report suggests that bonds with shorter maturities and recent trading activity are more likely to be included in the ETF, indicating a preference for liquidity and market performance [2][12][13] Company Analysis Nanhua Futures (603093) - The company reported a slight decline in net profit for Q3 2025, with a total revenue of 9.41 billion yuan, down 8.27% year-on-year, but a significant improvement in net income from fees [4][14] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 4.71 billion, 5.37 billion, and 5.87 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 28.12, 24.67, and 22.59 [4][14] Jin Zai Foods (003000) - The company achieved a revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit decreased by 19.5% [5][15][16] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 2.4 billion, 3.5 billion, and 3.9 billion yuan, with PE ratios of 23, 16, and 14 [5][15][16] Hangcha Group (603298) - The company reported a 13% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 140 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a 9% growth [6][17] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 22 billion, 24 billion, and 27 billion yuan, with PE ratios of 16, 15, and 13 [6][17] Gu Ming (01364.HK) - The company focuses on high-quality, fresh products and has established a robust supply chain to support its expansion in the mid-priced tea beverage market [7] - The forecast for adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 21.9 billion, 25.0 billion, and 28.8 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 21, and 18 [7] Rejing Bio (688068) - The company is developing SGC001, a treatment for myocardial infarction, which has shown promising preclinical results and has received fast-track designation from the FDA [8]