信用利差周报2025年第39期：上交所明确绿色金融四大发展方向，熊猫债累计发行规模突破万亿-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Stock Exchange clarifies four development directions to promote the standardized development of green finance, aiming to optimize the policy environment and guide capital to the green - low - carbon field. China's green bond market is in a rapid development stage, but still faces challenges such as term mismatch and insufficient participation of small and medium - sized enterprises [3][11]. - The cumulative issuance scale of panda bonds has exceeded one trillion yuan, with continuous enrichment of issuers and optimization of the institutional environment. Although the market has expanded, there is still room for improvement in market scale, secondary - market liquidity, and foreign - institution participation [4][15]. - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down slightly, while import and export data in September exceeded expectations. The central bank net - withdrew funds last week, and the money market maintained a balanced state. The primary market of credit bonds saw a significant recovery in issuance scale and a decline in most issuance costs. The secondary market of credit bonds had significantly increased trading activity, with bond yields showing a mixed trend [5][20][24]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Hotspots - Shanghai Stock Exchange Promotes Green Finance: On October 16, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced four directions for green finance development, including supporting green enterprises' equity and bond financing, strengthening sustainable information disclosure of listed companies, enhancing investment - end construction in the sustainable field, and deepening international cooperation. China's green bond market has the largest scale globally, and the exchange is promoting standardized construction in multiple aspects. However, challenges such as term mismatch and insufficient SME participation remain [3][11][12]. - Panda Bonds' Scale Exceeds One Trillion: As of October 17, the cumulative issuance scale of panda bonds has exceeded one trillion yuan. The market has grown rapidly since 2023, with diversified issuers. The expansion is driven by low domestic interest rates and optimized regulatory policies. Although it has enhanced the market's depth and internationalization, there is still room for improvement in market scale, liquidity, and foreign - institution participation [4][15][16]. Macroeconomic Data - GDP Growth: The year - on - year GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8%, slightly higher than the annual target. The growth rate of the secondary industry slowed down, while that of the primary industry increased [20]. - Import and Export: In September, the export volume was $328.57 billion, with a year - on - year growth of 8.3%, and the import volume was $238.12 billion, with a year - on - year growth of 7.4%, both showing significant improvements compared to August [5][20]. - Social Financing Scale: The stock of social financing scale in September was 424 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.7%. The new - added social financing scale decreased year - on - year, mainly due to weak credit demand and a slowdown in government - bond issuance [20][21]. - Money Supply: In September, M1 reached 7.2%, and M2 was 8.7%. The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 narrowed to a new low for the year [5][21]. Money Market - The central bank net - withdrew 813.9 billion yuan through open - market operations last week. Although funds were withdrawn, the money market remained balanced, with fluctuating capital prices. The pledged - repo rates of various tenors had both increases and decreases, and the spread between the 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor narrowed to 9bp [6][24]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds last week was 339.359 billion yuan, a significant recovery compared to the previous period. The issuance scale of each bond type and industry increased. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net outflow of 6.067 billion yuan in financing, while half of the industrial bonds had a net inflow. Most of the average issuance costs of credit bonds decreased, with a range of 6bp - 49bp, except for a 5bp increase in the issuance rates of 5 - year AA + and 3 - year AA bonds [7][29]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The secondary - market trading volume of bonds last week was 9.166734 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 88.1725 billion yuan to 183.3347 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in trading activity. Bond yields showed a mixed trend. Interest - rate bond yields mostly increased, while credit - bond yields mostly decreased. Credit spreads generally showed a short - term decline and long - term increase, and rating spreads fluctuated within a narrow range of 3bp [37][39][41].