Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - Finance: Index futures are long - term bullish and recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; Aluminum is recommended to layout long positions on dips after a pullback; Nickel is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][17][19] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to fluctuate; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; The 01 contract of soda ash is recommended to take a short - selling approach [1][22][24][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly; Apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1][34][35][36] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Live pigs are recommended to short on rallies; Eggs are recommended to short on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; Soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; Oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1][39][44][45] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by macro - policies, and others by international trade and geopolitical factors. For example, the PVC market is affected by high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export prospects; the oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [23][47][50] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - Index Futures: May fluctuate in the short - term and are long - term bullish. The market trading volume decreased slightly, and different sectors showed different trends. Pay attention to important financial policies after the conference [5] - Treasury Bonds: Are expected to fluctuate. The outcome of Sino - US negotiations is the key factor affecting market risk appetite [5] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking: Supply is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. Jm has multi - allocation value, and the first round of coke price increase has started after the holiday [7] - Rebar: Futures prices are low - valued, and the price decline space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long near 3000 for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: After the holiday, the policy expectation has cooled down, and the supply and demand fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The macro - factors cause large fluctuations, but the fundamentals are relatively stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [10][11] - Aluminum: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has decreased. The demand in the peak season is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to layout long positions on dips [12] - Nickel: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty to the supply. The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude or short on rallies [17] - Tin: The supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18][19] - Silver and Gold: Affected by factors such as the delay of US economic data, government shutdown risk, and interest - rate cut expectation, they are expected to have support. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full pullback [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - Caustic Soda: The short - term supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate. The range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - Rubber: The cost has short - term support, and the supply is expected to increase in the long - term. It is expected to fluctuate, and the support at 15000 is concerned [27][28] - Urea: The supply decreases, the agricultural demand increases, and the industrial demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the range of 1550 - 1650 is concerned [29] - Methanol: The supply increases, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate [30][31] - Polyolefins: The supply has an increasing expectation, the demand is limited, and the inventory has a pressure to accumulate. The PE and PP main contracts are expected to fluctuate, and the support at 6900 and 6600 is concerned respectively [30][31][32] - Soda Ash: The supply is in surplus, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The 01 contract is recommended to take a short - selling approach [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are both expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate [34][35] - PTA: The oil price is low, the supply - demand is balanced, and the inventory accumulation slows down. It is expected to have range fluctuations, and the range of 4350 - 4600 is concerned [35] - Apples and Jujubes: The quality of apples decreases, and the delivery cost is expected to increase; the jujube purchase price is relatively stable. Both are expected to be slightly bullish [36][37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: In the short - term, the price may fluctuate narrowly. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure. Different contracts have different trading strategies [39][41] - Eggs: In the short - term, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies [42][43] - Corn: The new crop is on the market, and the supply is sufficient. The demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43] - Soybean Meal: The US soybean supply is under pressure, and the domestic supply is improving. It is expected to have range fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to trade relations [44] - Oils: Affected by factors such as production, export, and supply - demand relationships, the adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to go long after the correction [45][47][50]
期货市场交易指引：2025年10月24日-20251024
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-24 02:25