中辉期货豆粕日报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is bearish consolidation, rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal and is also in short - term bearish consolidation; palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will see a short - term decline; cotton prices face upward pressure; for red dates, it is advisable to short at high prices; and for live pigs, short on rebounds [1]. Summary According to Each Variety Soybean Meal - Price and Market Conditions: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2938 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan or 1.84% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3011.71 yuan/ton, up 21.71 yuan or 0.73%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 163.0885 yuan/ton, up 4.27 yuan. The basis of soybean meal 01 was - 38 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2]. - Supply and Demand: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 988.4 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 768.7 million tons, an increase of 2.94 million tons. The domestic oil mills' profit from pressing is in a loss state, with stronger price - holding intentions. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low [3]. - Outlook: Brazil's rainfall in the next 15 days is expected to be below normal. Weather factors support the price of soybean meal to stop falling and consolidate. The Sino - US negotiation is expected to run above the recent low, but the rebound space is limited due to uncertainties [4]. Rapeseed Meal - Price and Market Conditions: The futures price of the main contract was 2339 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 1.39%. The national average spot price was 2495.79 yuan/ton, up 18.95 yuan or 0.77%. The national average rapeseed pressing profit was - 317.6005 yuan/ton, up 33.53 yuan [5]. - Supply and Demand: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 0.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons. The demand for rapeseed meal enters the off - season as the temperature drops [6]. - Outlook: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mix of long and short factors. It follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new drivers [1]. Palm Oil - Price and Market Conditions: The futures price of the main contract was 9132 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or - 0.35%. The national average price was 9098 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or - 1.52%. The weekly commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons [7]. - Supply and Demand: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, but the growth rate slowed down, and the production increased significantly. The approaching Indian Festival of Lights reduces the purchase demand [8]. - Outlook: It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in October, with a short - term decline and a short - term volatile market [1]. Cotton - Price and Market Conditions: The price of the main contract CF2601 was 13575 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.30%. The national cotton commercial inventory was 143.34 million tons, an increase of 28 million tons [9]. - Supply and Demand: In the US, the new cotton harvest is over half - way. In Brazil, the new cotton processing and inspection is over 70%. In China, the new cotton picking progress is nearly 70%. The downstream demand is in a seasonal weakening trend [10][11]. - Outlook: The international cotton price is under pressure from supply but supported by India's MSP import tariff. The domestic cotton price is under pressure from new cotton harvest and import increase. The new - year cotton cost will be fixed soon, and the price faces upward pressure [12]. Red Dates - Price and Market Conditions: The price of the main contract CJ2601 was 11165 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or - 0.89%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9167 tons, a decrease of 158 tons [13]. - Supply and Demand: The new - season red dates in Xinjiang are about to be harvested. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, with a confirmed reduction but no significant supply - demand gap. The demand is gradually improving as the temperature drops [15]. - Outlook: There is still pressure after the new fruits are on the market. Short at high prices before and after the new red dates are harvested [16]. Live Pigs - Price and Market Conditions: The price of the main contract Ih2601 was 12200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.16%. The national average spot price was 11900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory was 3839.01 million tons, an increase of 56.61 million tons [17]. - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in October increased. The second - fattening entry increased in some areas. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets in September increased. In the long - term, the number of breeding sows decreased. The demand decreased after the holidays [18]. - Outlook: The supply pressure is transferred to the end of November to early December. The short - term market is a rebound, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [19].