Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment [1] - Copper: Long-term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Stabilize and recover [1] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are temporarily halted from falling due to factors such as tense US-Russia relations and uncertain US policies. In the short term, there are key negotiation periods and geopolitical issues, while in the long term, the supporting logic remains unchanged, including the start of an interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1][3]. - Silver prices are in a high-level adjustment. In the short term, the market fluctuates greatly, and in the long term, global policy stimulus will drive up demand, resulting in a continuous supply-demand gap [1]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term. With the improvement of the market atmosphere and the increase in risk appetite, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions should wait for a pullback [1][7]. - Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, supply will increase while demand will decrease [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain bullish in the short term due to the stabilization of alumina prices and the depletion of inventories during the peak season [1][14]. - Nickel prices are stabilizing and recovering, supported by the peak season demand for nickel sulfate [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold and silver prices showed signs of halting their decline due to tense US-Russia relations and the EU's new round of sanctions against Russia [2]. - Basic Logic: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the US economic data was strong. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: The long-term upward logic remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver prices halt their decline. For domestic gold, pay attention to the support at 930, and for silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 11,200. Long-term positions can continue to be held [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper opened higher overnight and consolidated at a high level [6]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. After the copper price rose, downstream demand was weak, and domestic social inventories increased slightly [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper, be cautious about chasing high prices, and new long positions should wait for a pullback. In the long term, copper is a strategic resource in the US-China game and a substitute for precious metals, and its demand is expected to increase [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc opened lower overnight and then rose, recovering the gap [9]. - Industrial Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season demand is weak, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas markets continues [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, it is still a short position in the sector. Pay attention to the resistance at 22,500 [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - Industrial Logic: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices also rose [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The peak season demand for stainless steel is not obvious, and the market is under pressure to destock [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see for now, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 opened higher and closed higher, with increasing positions and trading volume [20]. - Industrial Logic: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The main funds may drive up the price when shifting positions [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with a focus on the range of 78,500 - 82,000 [22].
中辉有色观点-20251024
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-24 02:22