农产品日报：二育有所减少，猪价震荡运行-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the pig market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [3] - For the egg market, the strategy is also cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - The recent firmness of live pig spot prices is supported by the hot demand for secondary fattening, but it will lead to an increase in pig supply in a few months, causing the "seesaw effect" in the market, with near - term contracts and spot prices firm and forward contracts weakening due to expected supply increase [2] - For eggs, after the previous inventory clearance, the current consumer demand is weak in the short - term, and the large supply pressure during the seasonal consumption off - season suppresses the spot price, with the market sentiment being pessimistic and the spot price expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 12,200 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.87 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.15 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.53 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.68 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.79 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.62 yuan/kg, down 0.6%; beef was 66.41 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 61.82 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; eggs were 7.42 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; white - striped chicken was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - Secondary fattening, mainly carried out by retail investors who prefer to raise large fat pigs, leads to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply, causing the "seesaw effect" in the market [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Egg Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3027 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 102.00 yuan (+ 3.49%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.09; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.53 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On October 23, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.24 days, down 0.03 days (- 2.36%); the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.08 days (- 5.71%) [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - After the previous inventory clearance due to improved weather and high replenishment enthusiasm of traders, the current consumer demand is weak with no short - term positive factors, and each link is mainly digesting the previous inventory [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish, with the spot price expected to fluctuate weakly due to large supply pressure during the seasonal consumption off - season [5]