尿素日报：现货成交好转，复合肥开工率提升-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: On - the - fence - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices have slightly increased, accompanied by a rise in the futures market, and spot trading has improved. Some regions are in the process of agricultural autumn fertilization, and the production of compound fertilizer for autumn fertilization is winding down. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased as some previously shut - down plants have resumed production. The demand for compound fertilizer for winter wheat is mainly for inventory clearance, and due to heavy autumn rains, the demand for winter wheat fertilization has been postponed to mid - to - late October. The operating rate of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. As the weather improves, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated this week, mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast are gradually starting up, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and September and October are export windows. The export volume in September was 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. There are both port collection and departure activities. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was $402 per ton on the west coast and $395 per ton on the east coast. The urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent export dynamics [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report presents figures on urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][24] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures on production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization are included, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][29] 4. Urea Off - shore Prices and Export Profit - The report shows figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [33][37][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are presented, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][51][57]