中泰期货晨会纪要-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - economic and Policy: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed major goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to exert force, and there is a need to actively and steadily resolve local government debt risks. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck, while monetary policy is likely to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - Stock and Bond Markets: For stock index futures, a strategy of buying on dips can be considered, paying attention to index rotation. For treasury bond futures, an upward - trending and volatile strategy is recommended, focusing on the odds of short - term bonds [9][10]. - Commodity Markets: Different commodities have different trends. For example, in the black metal market, steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the medium - term; in the energy and chemical market, crude oil may rebound in the short - term but will be based on fundamentals in the long - term [13][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - financial - Stock Index Futures: A strategy of buying on dips can be continued, paying attention to index rotation. The A - share market was affected by the Fourth Plenary Session and the Sino - US talks in Malaysia. The market is expected to see continuous efforts from macro - policies [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: An upward - trending and volatile strategy is recommended, focusing on the odds of short - term bonds. The market was also affected by the Fourth Plenary Session and the Sino - US talks. Fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, and monetary policy is likely to be loosened [10]. Black Metals - Steel and Ore: Steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the medium - term. Iron ore short positions can be reduced on dips. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for rolled plates is mixed. Raw material costs are volatile, and there is a risk of negative feedback if demand is poor [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to be volatile and strong in the short - term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution", environmental protection, and safety inspections. The demand for finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be observed [15]. - Ferroalloys: The medium - term outlook for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is bearish. The 23rd saw the ferrosilicon 01 contract rise to 5570 yuan/ton and the silicomanganese 01 contract rise to 5820 yuan/ton, affected by coking coal sentiment [16]. - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, a bearish strategy can be short - term profitable. For glass, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the inventory of glass has increased [17][18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile at a high level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and shorting on rallies when the price is at a premium is advisable [20]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc inventories have decreased. The price of zinc can be temporarily observed. Overseas LME zinc inventories continue to decline, and the spot premium has risen rapidly [21]. - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term supply disruptions and strong demand support the price, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and weak in a range. Polysilicon will continue to be volatile in a narrow range, with the lower limit supported by spot prices and the upper limit depending on the implementation of capacity merger policies [23]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The international cotton market has uncertainties, and domestic cotton supply is increasing while demand is still weak [27]. - Sugar: A bearish rolling operation or a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and domestic sugar supply is gradually increasing [28]. - Eggs: A strategy of shorting near - month contracts on rallies is recommended. The supply of eggs is still abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The 01 contract is affected by the expectation of capacity reduction and the peak season before the Spring Festival [29]. - Apples: The price is expected to be volatile. The price of apples in the western region is firm, and attention should be paid to price changes, storage progress, and merchants' purchasing sentiment [32]. - Corn: A strategy of shorting the 01 contract or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract is recommended. Corn prices are affected by supply and demand in different regions, and there is a risk of substitution from policy - released wheat [33]. - Red Dates: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to decline [34]. - Pigs: A strategy of shorting the LH2601 contract on rallies is recommended. The supply of pigs is abundant, and although there is some support at the bottom, there is no strong driving force for a significant price increase [35]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Crude oil may rebound in the short - term due to geopolitical factors, but will be based on fundamentals in the long - term. Supply is increasing steadily, and demand is expected to weaken [37]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil prices will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia [38]. - Plastics: Polyolefins are expected to be volatile and weak from a supply - demand perspective. The current price is relatively low, and there may be a small - scale rebound. Short positions can be reduced appropriately [39]. - Rubber: Rubber is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. A strategy of buying on dips can be considered, but chasing the rise should be cautious [40]. - Methanol: Methanol is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. There are uncertainties in supply, and a small - scale long - position can be considered after a rebound driving force appears [42]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices are trending strongly, affected by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand. The production has decreased, and the inventory reduction speed is normal [43]. - Polyester Industry Chain: A short - term strategy of going long with cost can be considered, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. An arbitrage opportunity of PTA 1 - 5 reverse spread can be observed [44]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): LPG may rise in the short - term due to geopolitical factors, but is expected to be weak relative to crude oil in the long - term. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to weaken [44]. Others - Offset Printing Paper: The market is expected to be volatile and weak. A strategy of selling put options near the factory production cost or selling call options on rebounds can be considered [46]. - Pulp: A strategy of going long on the 01 contract on dips can be considered if the spot price is stable. The inventory of pulp has decreased slightly, and the price of white cardboard is expected to increase [47]. - Logs: A strategy of going long on the 01 contract on dips can be considered. The cost provides some support, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and freight [47]. - Urea: A volatile strategy is recommended. The spot price has increased, and the futures price is volatile and strong. The demand from the compound fertilizer industry in Henan has increased [48]. - Synthetic Rubber: A strategy of short - term long - position on dips can be considered, but the upward pressure is large. The price of butadiene is weak, and the profit of butadiene rubber is improving [49].