Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: Cost - supported, with a unilateral trend of being oscillatory and slightly strong. PXN is expected to fall, and factories are advised to hedge when the spread is between 240 - 250 US dollars [10]. - PTA: Demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by oil prices. The new PTA device of Xin Fengming is planned to start this week [10]. - MEG: Reduce short positions. Pay attention to the restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device in November and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [11]. - Rubber: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [12]. - Synthetic Rubber: Supported by macro - sentiment, with a rising central value, but facing fundamental pressure [16][18]. - Asphalt: Strengthened by the rebound of crude oil [19]. - LLDPE: With a weakening trend due to supply pressure and inventory accumulation [30][31]. - PP: Still showing a weak trend, suppressed by factors such as continuous high supply and trade wars [33][34]. - Caustic Soda: The far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction of alumina production [38]. - Pulp: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [41][44]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable [45]. - Methanol: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, with fundamental pressure and macro - support [48][51][52]. - Urea: Supported by macro - factors, with a short - term rebound, but facing medium - term pressure [53][55]. - Styrene: Temporarily following the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term oscillatory pattern [56]. - Soda Ash: The spot market shows little change, expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [59]. - LPG: Significantly supported by cost, but with macro - risks [62]. - Propylene: Supported by cost, with a short - term rebound from a low level [63]. - PVC: With a weakening trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [70]. - Fuel Oil: Continuing to rise strongly, and the strong trend will continue. The upward trend of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly shrunk [73]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Relatively resistant to decline [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: On October 23, the price of PX in Asia increased, following the rise of crude oil. The load of PTA devices changed, and the overall start - up load of MEG in the Chinese mainland decreased. The polyester load remained stable, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased [5][8][9]. - Trend and Suggestion: PX is oscillatory and slightly strong, and factories are advised to hedge PXN spreads. PTA demand is expected to improve, and MEG short positions should be reduced [10][11]. Rubber - Market Data: The trading volume of the rubber futures market increased, and the positions decreased. The prices of glue and cup - glue in Thailand increased, and the raw material prices in Yunnan increased slightly. The supply in Hainan decreased due to typhoons, and the raw material supply in Vietnam was limited [13][14][15]. - Trend: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [12]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Data: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market increased, and the positions decreased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene increased [16][17]. - Trend: Supported by macro - sentiment, with a rising central value, but facing fundamental pressure [16][18]. Asphalt - Market Data: The asphalt futures prices increased, and the trading volume and positions changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate increased slightly. The domestic asphalt production in November is expected to decrease, and the factory and social inventories decreased [19][29]. - Trend: Strengthened by the rebound of crude oil [19]. LLDPE - Market Data: The LLDPE futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic PE market price decreased overall, with a slight increase in some varieties over the weekend [30]. - Trend: With a weakening trend due to supply pressure and inventory accumulation [30][31]. PP - Market Data: The PP futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic PP market price rebounded after a decline, with a downward - moving price center [33][34]. - Trend: Still showing a weak trend, suppressed by factors such as continuous high supply and trade wars [33][34]. Caustic Soda - Market Data: The price of caustic soda futures and the spot price in Shandong remained stable. The supply pressure of caustic soda is not large, but the far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction of alumina production [37][38]. - Trend: The far - month valuation is suppressed [38]. Pulp - Market Data: The pulp futures trading volume decreased, and the positions decreased. The domestic and international prices of pulp varieties changed, and the port inventory decreased but remained at a high level. The downstream demand was weak [42][43][44]. - Trend: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [41]. Glass - Market Data: The glass futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic float glass market price remained stable, with a slight improvement in overall sales [46]. - Trend: The price of the original sheet remains stable [45]. Methanol - Market Data: The methanol futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The port inventory increased slightly, with different trends in different regions [49][51]. - Trend: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, with fundamental pressure and macro - support [48][51][52]. Urea - Market Data: The urea futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly, and the spot trading improved [53][54][55]. - Trend: Supported by macro - factors, with a short - term rebound, but facing medium - term pressure [53][55]. Styrene - Market Data: The styrene futures prices changed, and the profit margins of different production methods decreased. The port inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene turned into de - stocking expectations [56][57]. - Trend: Temporarily following the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term oscillatory pattern [56]. Soda Ash - Market Data: The soda ash futures price increased, and the positions increased. The domestic soda ash market was stable, with an increase in supply and weak demand [59]. - Trend: The spot market shows little change, expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [59]. LPG and Propylene - Market Data: The LPG and propylene futures prices increased, and the trading volume and positions changed. The CP prices of propane and butane increased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [63][67][68]. - Trend: LPG is supported by cost but has macro - risks; propylene is supported by cost with a short - term rebound [62][63]. PVC - Market Data: The PVC futures price and the spot price remained stable. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is affected by trade wars, with weak demand and high inventory [70]. - Trend: With a weakening trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [70]. Fuel Oil - Market Data: The fuel oil futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume and positions changed. The spot prices of fuel oil in different regions increased [73]. - Trend: Continuing to rise strongly, and the strong trend will continue. The upward trend of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly shrunk [73]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Data: The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices changed, and the trading volume and positions changed. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased [75]. - Trend: Relatively resistant to decline [75].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251024
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-24 02:21