Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market is strong, and copper prices have risen. With uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, but an improvement in sentiment, and tight copper raw material supply, copper prices may remain strong [2][3]. - Aluminum prices continue to strengthen. With the marginal easing of Sino - US trade tensions and low domestic aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum prices may further rise in the short term [5][6]. - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. With an increase in lead ore port inventory, an improvement in the operating rate of lead smelters, and a decrease in downstream finished product inventory, combined with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. With a decrease in domestic zinc ore inventory, an increase in domestic zinc ingot inventory, and a high structural risk of LME zinc, along with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market [11][12]. - Tin prices may remain high and oscillate in the short term. With slow tin mine复产 in Myanmar and strict crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, and a marginal improvement in downstream consumption during the peak season [13][14]. - Nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short term. With marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions, but significant refined nickel inventory pressure, and long - term support from US monetary policy and domestic policies [15][16]. - The price of lithium carbonate may continue to rise. With a decrease in domestic social inventory and an improvement in fundamentals, attention should be paid to the pressure from supply recovery and industrial hedging [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term. With support for ore prices in the short term but potential pressure after the rainy season, and an over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end, but the possibility of a strong non - ferrous metal sector driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices may continue to improve. With Qing Shan Group's price - supporting attitude and an improvement in market confidence, the key lies in the release of downstream demand [25][26]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited upward space. With strong cost support but high warehouse receipts and large delivery pressure on near - month contracts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Conditions: The LME 3M copper contract rose 1.49% to $10,817/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract reached 86,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 75 to 136,925 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined. Domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 36,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the futures, and in Guangdong, it was at a premium of 65 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference widened to 3,360 yuan/ton [2]. - Strategy: Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations and tight copper raw material supply, copper prices may remain strong. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 85,600 - 87,200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,680 - 10,950 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Conditions: The LME aluminum rose 2.12% to $2,865/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract reached 21,265 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE weighted contract increased by 4.3 to 560,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 67,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.7 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.25 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline. The spot in East China was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.5 to 478,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts remained high [5]. - Strategy: With the marginal easing of Sino - US trade tensions and low domestic aluminum ingot inventory, the short - term price may further rise. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,050 - 21,380 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 2,820 - 2,890 dollars/ton [6]. Lead - Market Conditions: The SHFE lead index rose 2.28% to 17,563 yuan/ton. The LME 3S lead rose 14.5 to $2,007/ton. The refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead futures inventory was 23,700 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 244,100 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 26,100 tons [8]. - Strategy: With an increase in lead ore port inventory, an improvement in the operating rate of lead smelters, and a decrease in downstream finished product inventory, combined with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [9]. Zinc - Market Conditions: The SHFE zinc index rose 1.54% to 22,347 yuan/ton. The LME 3S zinc rose 31.5 to $3,034.5/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 162,100 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 10,900 tons [11]. - Strategy: With a decrease in domestic zinc ore inventory, an increase in domestic zinc ingot inventory, and a high structural risk of LME zinc, along with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. Tin - Market Conditions: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 281,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar was slow, and Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased to 29.72%. Downstream demand in new energy vehicles and AI servers was strong, but traditional consumer electronics and the photovoltaic sector were weak. The operating rate of tin solder in domestic sample enterprises in August recovered to 73.22% [13]. - Strategy: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in market risk appetite, but tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the recovery of demand in the peak season, tin prices may remain high and oscillate. It is recommended to observe. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Conditions: The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, the price of nickel pig iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high due to increased demand from downstream industries [15]. - Strategy: In the short term, with the marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions and significant refined nickel inventory pressure, it is recommended to observe. If the price drops enough, consider buying on dips. The operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Conditions: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 2.24% to 77,569 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,700 yuan, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.28%. The LC2601 contract rose 3.66% to 79,940 yuan. The domestic production of lithium carbonate increased by 1.1% to 21,308 tons, and the inventory decreased by 1.7% to 130,366 tons [19]. - Strategy: With strong downstream demand and a decrease in domestic social inventory, the price may continue to rise. Pay attention to the pressure from supply recovery and industrial hedging. The operating range of the GFEX lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 77,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - Market Conditions: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.32% to 2,848 yuan/ton. The position increased by 0.6 to 475,000 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,800 yuan/ton, at a discount of 4 yuan/ton to the 11 - contract. The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price decreased by 1 to $314/ton, and the import profit and loss was 21 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.09 to 221,300 tons. The CIF price of Guinea ore was 72.5 dollars/ton, and that of Australian ore was 69 dollars/ton [22]. - Strategy: Ore prices have short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - Market Conditions: The SHFE stainless steel main contract rose 0.43% to 12,765 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were stable. The futures inventory was 74,376 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [25]. - Strategy: With Qing Shan Group's price - supporting attitude and an improvement in market confidence, the key lies in the release of downstream demand. If terminal procurement can continue, the market improvement trend may continue [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Conditions: The main AD2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.54% to 20,625 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract decreased slightly to 25,700 lots, and the trading volume was 5,500 lots. The warehouse receipts increased by 0.02 to 47,800 tons. The price of domestic and imported ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton. The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.09 to 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.1 to 60,700 tons [28]. - Strategy: With strong cost support but high warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure on near - month contracts is large, and the upward price space is relatively limited [29].
有色金属日报2025-10-24-20251024
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-24 02:33