Group 1: Energy and Metals Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with Brent's December contract rising 2.5%. Geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russia are driving the short-term bullish trend. Attention is on the China-US-Malaysia talks from 24 - 27th and subsequent Russia-US dialogues [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, gold and silver rebounded. Global uncertainties may lead to short-term high-level oscillations. It is advisable to wait for opportunities. Focus on the US September CPI data release tonight [2]. Copper - Overnight, Shanghai copper continued its upward trend. The high gold-copper ratio enhances the resilience of copper price allocation. The domestic spot copper price was 85,490 yuan, with a Shanghai premium of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory decreased by 5,700 tons to 189,800 tons. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Aluminum - Crude oil drove commodity prices up, and Shanghai aluminum continued its bullish trend. An overseas aluminum plant cut production by 200,000 tons due to an accident. Supply is expected to grow slowly. Demand is lackluster. Temporarily view the upside space with caution [4]. Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and inventory is rising. Supply is in excess, and spot prices are falling. The price is approaching the cash loss in Shanxi and Henan. It is expected to operate weakly [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments may increase costs. However, industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are high. It follows aluminum price fluctuations [6]. Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 month premium has dropped to $220/ton. The tight overseas spot market supports the high-level oscillation of LME zinc. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas one. The export window is open, and the outer market pulls the inner market. The support level for Shanghai zinc is at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short-term upside is capped at 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The import window is open, and the outer market has strong support at $1,960/ton. Domestic refineries are in the transition from production cuts to resumption. SMM lead social inventory is at a low of 37,700 tons. Some regions have tight lead ingot supplies, supporting the market. Shanghai lead is expected to continue its upward trend [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but market trading was light. Downstream demand recovery is limited, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The overall confidence in the spot market is weak. Technically, Shanghai nickel is bearish [9]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices rose. LME tin is being watched for its performance against the MA20 moving average. The LME 0 - 3 month spot premium has risen to $100. Low imports of tin concentrate in September and limited resumption of Myanmar mines support tin prices. The upside space is limited [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, and market trading picked up. Demand in the peak season is still strong, and the inventory has decreased. Technically, it is short-term bullish [11]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures oscillated upward, partly driven by the black - series market. If coal policy tightens, cost support will strengthen. In October, supply is differentiated. Supply pressure is accumulating, and the weekly social inventory has slightly increased. In November, production cuts in the southwest are likely, and the supply - demand contradiction may ease. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [12]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded after approaching the lower end of the range. Spot prices are stable. Production cuts in October were less than expected, and the probability of silicon wafer production cuts in November - December has increased. The fundamentals lack positive support, and the market is expected to oscillate [13]. Iron Ore - Overnight, iron ore futures oscillated. Supply is strong globally, and domestic arrivals have decreased from the high level. Port inventory is increasing. Demand is weakening as hot metal production declines. Market sentiment has improved due to expectations of policy support. The short - term trend is expected to be bullish [15]. Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price increases has started. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Inventory is decreasing slightly. The market may be bullish as the cost is expected to rise [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Political instability in Mongolia has raised concerns about coal imports. Production has slightly increased, and spot auction prices are rising. Inventory has increased slightly. The market may be bullish as the cost is expected to rise [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated upward, driven by steel prices. Demand is supported by high hot metal production. Production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. Manganese ore prices are rising slightly. Attention is on external trade frictions [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated upward, driven by steel prices. Demand is supported by high hot metal production. Export demand is stable, and secondary demand has slightly increased. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. Attention is on external trade frictions [19]. Group 2: Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, fuel oil followed the upward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil is short - term bullish due to geopolitical factors but may face supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak but may improve in the fourth quarter [21]. Asphalt - Crude oil led the rise in oil product futures, and BU continued its upward trend. The weekly asphalt开工率 decreased, and November refinery production is expected to decline. Social inventory is steadily decreasing, and factory inventory is decreasing slowly. The short - term market is in a tight balance, and the rising cost supports the price [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - This week, LPG supply increased slightly. Chemical demand is growing, and combustion demand is expected to strengthen. Refinery and port inventories have decreased. The market is supported by fundamental improvements and rising crude oil prices [23]. Urea - With the end of rainy weather, agricultural demand for urea has increased, and production enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed. Export policy is unclear, and port inventory has decreased significantly. Supply is still abundant, but domestic supply has decreased slightly. The short - term market is expected to oscillate bullishly [24]. Methanol - Imported methanol unloading is slower than expected, and port inventory has slightly increased. Domestic plant utilization has decreased, and the inventory of production enterprises is flat. Port inventory is high. In the short term, the market is affected by policy factors. In the long term, import supply pressure is expected to decrease, and the price may oscillate upward [25]. Pure Benzene - Driven by rising oil prices, pure benzene futures rebounded. Last week, downstream buying was weak, and port inventory increased. After the price decline, short - term supply concerns and rising oil prices have boosted buying. In the medium term, high imports remain a pressure. Attention is on port inventory accumulation [26]. Styrene - Driven by cost, styrene is short - term bullish. However, high inventory may limit the upside [27]. Polypropylene, Polyethylene, and Propylene - Propylene prices are stable at a low level. Polyethylene prices are slightly rising due to positive macro factors and cost support, but downstream resistance is strong. Polypropylene trading sentiment has improved, but real - demand growth is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is increasing as maintenance ends. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are good. Cost support is not obvious, and the market may operate at the bottom. For caustic soda, supply is fluctuating slightly. Non - aluminum downstream inventory replenishment has decreased inventory, but high inventory pressure remains [29]. PX and PTA - Rising oil prices have provided support for PX and PTA. The textile market has improved, and polyester production is expected to be stable. Upcoming refinery maintenance may affect PX supply. PTA processing margins are weak, and new plant trials are expected. The short - term trend is bullish, but in the medium term, inventory accumulation may be a concern [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production has decreased due to refinery maintenance, but new plant supply has increased. East China port inventory has decreased. Supply is expected to contract, and demand is improving. The short - term trend is bullish, but medium - term inventory accumulation is a risk [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin - Short - fiber production is at a high level, and inventory is decreasing. The spot price is strong, and the processing margin is improving. Raw material price increases have boosted downstream buying. The short - term trend is bullish. For bottle - grade resin, demand is weakening due to the season, and inventory is increasing [32]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans continued to rise, and the oil - meal ratio decreased. Domestic soybean meal inventory is still high. Overall, the supply in the fourth quarter is stable, but it may tighten in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The market is waiting for the outcome of the Sino - US trade talks [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. If supply decreases rapidly, the price will be more resilient. Currently, the supply increase in Malaysia is larger than usual, and short - term price corrections are possible. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on vegetable oils at low prices [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Overnight, overseas rapeseed futures were boosted by oil prices. Domestic rapeseed is expected to follow. The Sino - US trade talks are crucial. Australian rapeseed is being harvested, and Russian rapeseed exports to China may increase. There is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil. A short - rapeseed cross - product strategy is recommended [38]. Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybean prices rose, following the overseas market. The market is optimistic about the trade talks. Domestic soybean auctions had some transactions at 3,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. Short - term attention is on policy guidance [39]. Corn - The "market - based purchase + policy - supported storage" system is emphasized. Northeast corn prices are slightly rising, and Shandong's supply is increasing. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply will remain abundant in the next two weeks, and Dalian corn may continue to be weak at the bottom, with increased volatility [40]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures increased in position. Near - month contracts fluctuated narrowly, and far - month contracts hit new lows. Spot prices rebounded slightly. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening has decreased. Although supply pressure is high, the large price difference between fat and lean pigs may slow down supply release. Consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. However, due to continuous supply pressure, it is advisable to go short after the price rebounds. The pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, with the October low likely to be the first bottom [41]. Eggs - Egg futures decreased in position by 30,000 lots and rose strongly. The main December contract rose over 3%. Spot prices mostly increased. Vegetable prices rose after the National Day. In the short term, risk avoidance is necessary. In the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the culling of old hens. Cold - storage eggs are still a potential pressure. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the medium - term trend may be bearish [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices rose. Brazilian cotton production is expected to be high. Zhengzhou cotton also rose. Spot prices were stable, and trading was average. Xinjiang machine - picked cotton prices are slightly rising. The national new cotton picking progress is 58.8%, and the cumulative processed lint is 982,000 tons. Ginning mills are cautious in purchasing. The peak season demand is weak. The short - term rise is considered a rebound. Attention is on Sino - US relations and production [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. Brazilian sugar production is high, and the production in India and Thailand is also expected to be good. The international supply is abundant, and there is pressure on the upside. In China, the market is focusing on the new - season production estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi has been good since July, and the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be positive. Attention is on the weather and sugarcane growth [44]. Apples - Apple futures are bullish. The market is focusing on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume has decreased slightly, and the production may be lower due to smaller fruit sizes. Farmers and traders are more willing to store apples, and the initial cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. Attention is on the storage situation [45]. Wood - Wood futures oscillated. The overseas price is high, and the domestic price is weak. Traders are less likely to increase imports, and the domestic supply may remain low. Port shipments are above 60,000 cubic meters, supporting the price. The inventory is low. The supply - demand situation has improved, and a long - position strategy is recommended [46]. Pulp - Pulp futures rose. The spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp are stable. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports decreased by 0.3 million tons to 2.074 million tons, a 0.1% decrease. September imports were 2.9525 million tons, an increase of 272,500 tons year - on - year. The domestic port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The rising price of overseas broad - leaf pulp provides some support. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market rebounded at the end of the day after a low - level oscillation. All three major indices closed in the green. Stock index futures also rose, with IH leading at 0.58%. All contracts were at a discount to the underlying index. Overnight, overseas stock markets rose, and US bond yields increased. The Sino - US trade talks from 24 - 27th and the 20th Fourth Plenary Session's goals are attracting attention. In the medium term, the focus should be on the technology - growth sector, but short - term market style rotation may occur [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The Sino - US trade talks may boost market risk appetite. The structural differentiation in the Treasury bond futures market continues, and the steepening of the yield curve may end [49].
综合晨报-20251024
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-24 02:44