Group 1: Report Core Views - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term geopolitical trends support oil prices, with a short - term low - level bullish mindset for oil [1] - The risk - aversion sentiment rises again, gold rebounds slightly, and the US dollar index has increased downward pressure, which is bullish for gold. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and the tire operating rate increases, driving the market upward. A low - level bullish mindset is adopted for rubber [3] - PTA has many maintenance expectations, low polyester inventory, and poor polyester operating load. It is advisable to follow the upward trend of crude oil and take a low - level bullish operation [3] - The futures price of lithium carbonate continues the oscillating and strengthening trend. In October, although the supply increases steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will lead to a tight supply situation [4] - The demand for steel products recovers this week, the supply - demand contradiction eases, and the high cost supports steel prices. Steel prices may oscillate in the short term [5] - The supply - demand structure of coking coal is tight in the short term, and the market sentiment is positive. Coking coal prices are expected to continue to rise slightly [5] - After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the stock market may react in the short term. The bond market operation is difficult, with a medium - term slightly bearish oscillating mindset [6] - Although silver follows gold's decline, due to the almost certain interest rate cut in October, the decline of silver is limited. It is long - term bullish, short - term oscillating, and there are opportunities to go long [6] - The upward trend of national hog prices slows down. After the oscillating adjustment, there may be a bullish expectation. Hog futures prices stop falling and rebound, maintaining a bottom - oscillating and rebounding pattern [7] - The production of Malaysian palm oil increases, and the inventory pressure increases. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. Palm oil will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the short term [7] - The spot market of imported soybeans is strong, and domestic demand is strong. Bean No. 2 oscillates and stabilizes, and Bean No. 1 maintains a bullish pattern [8] - The domestic methanol operating rate is high, the downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] - The float glass operation is stable, the inventory rises, and the downstream demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market oscillates weakly and stably, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene eases slightly, the demand - side operating rate rises slightly, and the inventory decreases. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] Group 2: Specific Product Data and Analysis Crude Oil - On October 23, the US imposed new sanctions on Russia, and a US B - 1B bomber approached the Venezuelan coast [1] Gold - Putin said that US sanctions on Russia would not have a major impact on the Russian economy, and the US - Russia meeting was postponed [1] Rubber - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, the production increased by 1.5% year - on - year to 8.99386 billion. The tire capacity utilization rate continued to rise [3] PTA - PTA social inventory is 314.13 million tons, a decrease of 5.03 million tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.51% [3] Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,821 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 458 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 450 yuan/ton [4] Steel and Coking Coal - As of October 23, the weekly output of rebar was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 59,100 tons from last week. The factory inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The social inventory was 4.3748 million tons, a decrease of 189,300 tons from last week [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [5] Bonds - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee announced the goal of achieving significant leaps in various strengths and reaching the level of medium - developed countries in per capita GDP by 2035 [6] Silver - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24 to 27 [6] Hog - On October 23, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous day [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20 in Malaysia, the production of crude palm oil increased by 10.77% compared with the same period last month [7] Soybean - The IGC predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will decrease by 1 million tons year - on - year to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 87.4%, a decrease of 2.13%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate is 75.11%, a weekly decrease of 1.53% [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash nationwide is 1,271 yuan/ton. The weekly output of soda ash is 740,500 tons, a decrease of 3.93%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7021 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.09% [11] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6,597 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is 75.01%, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day [12]
宁证期货今日早评-20251024
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-24 02:43