20251024申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects a. Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 86,030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 10 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 10,817 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 11.55 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 136,850 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, grid investment is growing positively, power source investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [2]. b. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices closed flat. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,300 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 3,023 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 225.89 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly, infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. c. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,135 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,865 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 8.21 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 482,525 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 121,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,530 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,335 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 190.56 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 250,878 tons, an increase of 402 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,615 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,012 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 36.83 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 281,230 yuan/ton, with a basis of 720 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 35,725 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 100.00 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 2,745 tons, an increase of 10 tons [2].