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Core Viewpoints - The gold market may experience significant short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the rebound space of alumina is limited [3]. - For zinc, it is advisable to sell short at high prices; for lead, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000, and it is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties and take profits on long positions in a timely manner [6]. - For soybeans, the short - term is strong, but it depends on trade negotiations; for corn, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly; for oils and fats, they are weak and differentiated; for sugar, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to buy at low prices; for eggs and pigs, the futures prices are expected to oscillate [7][8]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different varieties have different trends. Some are expected to oscillate in the short - term and be in a loose supply - demand pattern in the long - term, and corresponding trading strategies such as shorting at high prices or waiting and seeing are recommended [10][11][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market performance: International gold priced in London gold rebounded on Thursday, rising above $4100 [2]. - Fundamentals: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held; the US established a critical minerals fund; there are various international political and economic events; domestic and international gold and silver inventories have different changes [2]. - Trading strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but there are contradictions in the outlook. It is recommended to take partial profits on gold long positions and reduce silver long positions [2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.57% compared with the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2845.5 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate is stable [3]. - Trading strategy: The macro - sentiment is positive, downstream demand is warming up, and aluminum ingots have been destocked for two consecutive weeks. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.32% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan carried out maintenance or production reduction, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: The short - covering of the main short positions caused a small rebound in the market, but the supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged. The rebound space is expected to be limited [3]. Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract increased by 1.43% compared with the previous trading day [3][4]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure persists, the domestic mine TC has decreased, but the smelting profit is still high. The consumption end has no outstanding performance, and the inventory situation is complex [4]. - Trading strategy: Sell short at high prices [4]. Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract increased by 2.65% compared with the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply end has resumed production, but the consumption end is resilient. The low social inventory increases the risk of a short squeeze [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [4]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract closed at 9060 yuan/ton, up 2.9% [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply end may reduce production in the southwest in late October. The demand end is supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [4]. - Trading strategy: The short - term trend is affected by other varieties and the photovoltaic industry chain, and it is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: LC2601 closed at 79,940 yuan/ton, up 3.66% [4]. - Fundamentals: The price of lithium carbonate and related raw materials has changed. The supply has increased, and the demand has also increased. It is expected to be in a state of destocking [4]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main 2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5][6]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand and output of rebar and hot - rolled coils have increased. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is significant [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly, and take profits on long positions in a timely manner. The reference range for RB01 is 3020 - 3090 [6]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main 2601 contract closed at 777 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output has decreased slightly, the inventory has increased, and the first round of coke price increase has been implemented [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly. The reference range for I01 is 750 - 780 [6]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main 2601 contract closed at 1251 yuan/ton, up 35.5 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output has decreased slightly, the first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round has some resistance. The inventory is at a low level, and the futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see mainly, and take profits on long positions in a timely manner. The reference range for JM01 is 1230 - 1270 [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose on the optimistic expectation of Sino - US trade [7]. - Fundamentals: The US soybeans have a slight reduction in production, and South America has an expected increase in production. The demand is differentiated [7]. - Trading strategy: The short - term of US soybeans is strong, but it depends on trade negotiations. The domestic situation is currently loose, but the medium - term is uncertain [7]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price fluctuated [7]. - Fundamentals: The corn quality in North China has been damaged by rain, and the new corn in the Northeast is about to be listed in large quantities. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the pressure of new crop listing [7]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose [8]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia is good, and the export has increased. The near - term inventory is accumulating, and the far - term will have seasonal production reduction [8]. - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are weak and differentiated. It is recommended to take a reverse spread for palm oil [8]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5455 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 25/26 season has exceeded that of the previous year. The domestic new - season production is expected to increase, and the futures - spot basis will converge through the decline of the spot price [8]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: The cotton import in India has increased, and the domestic cotton situation has also changed. The acquisition price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang has risen [8]. - Trading strategy: Buy at low prices, with a strategy in the range of 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price rose, and the spot price partially increased [8]. - Fundamentals: The egg price is at a low level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, but the supply is sufficient, and the egg price is expected to be at a low level [8]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price showed a north - south difference [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig slaughter volume will continue to increase, the slaughter profit has emerged, and the pig price is expected to bottom out weakly [8]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract rose slightly, the basis weakened, and the overseas price was stable with a slight decline [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure has increased but at a slower pace, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film season has improved [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [10]. PVC - Market performance: V01 closed at 4711, down 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply has increased, the demand is weak, the social inventory is at a high level, and the export has variables [10]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to short [10]. PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price is $713/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4430 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply is high, the PTA short - term production is affected by maintenance, and the polyester demand has improved [10]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to go long on PX and short the processing fee of PTA at high prices [10]. Rubber - Market performance: RU2601 closed at 15245 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [10]. - Fundamentals: The raw material price has strong support, the inventory is decreasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate has increased [10]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to oscillate with strong support at the bottom [10]. Glass - Market performance: FG01 closed at 1092, down 0.6% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass price has fallen, the inventory has accumulated, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [10][11]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract rebounded slightly, the basis weakened, the overseas price was stable with a slight decline, and the export window opened [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but has been over - consumed [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [11]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price is 4177 yuan/ton, and the basis is 88 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply has decreased, the inventory is at a low level, and the polyester demand has improved [11]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the long - term [11]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices rebounded sharply for two consecutive days due to geopolitical factors [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand in Q4 may be weaker than the season [11]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract rebounded slightly, the overseas price was stable with a slight decline, and the import window was closed [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand contradictions of pure benzene and styrene are still large, and the demand has been over - consumed [11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short at high prices or take a reverse spread [11][12]. Soda Ash - Market performance: SA01 closed at 1228, unchanged [12]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand of soda ash are balanced, the inventory has a small accumulation, and the downstream demand has some changes [12]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [12].
商品期货早班车-20251024
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-10-24 02:42