甲醇日评：原油上涨或推动甲醇反弹-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in oil prices may drive a rebound in methanol prices, but the extent of the rebound is likely to be limited, and it is advisable to wait before going long on methanol [1] - Methanol prices are relatively high in terms of valuation, mainly compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices; in terms of drivers, the short - term upward momentum for methanol is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drivers [1] - The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and subsequent drivers may come from potential supply reductions, such as the expectation of gas restrictions in Iran [1] - The trading strategy is to remain on the sidelines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices) on October 23, 2025: MA01 was 2292 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 1.37% from the previous day; MA05 was 2329 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.26%; MA09 was 2285 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.15% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average) on October 23, 2025: prices in Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia increased by - 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.74%, 0.12% respectively compared to the previous day, while prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 52 yuan/ton on October 23, 2025, down 36 yuan from the previous day [1] Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices on October 23, 2025: Ordos Q5500 was 580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.87%; Datong Q5500 was 662.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 1.53%; Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 635 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively on October 23, 2025 [1] Profit Situation - On October 23, 2025, coal - based methanol profit was 238.1 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan or 2.58% from the previous day; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472 yuan/ton [1] - On October 23, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was - 2 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 94.59% from the previous day; the profit of East China MTO was - 770.57 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan or 3.93% [1] - On October 23, 2025, the profit of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde decreased by 5.64%, 3.79% respectively compared to the previous day, while the profit of MTBE and ethylene glycol remained unchanged [1] Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2260 yuan/ton, closing at 2292 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 704,659 lots and an open interest of 1,066,380, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving in the far - future is 257 - 264 US dollars/ton, with a lack of active bids and offers; the reference negotiation price for methanol vessels from other Middle - East regions arriving in the far - future is - 1 - 0.5%, with buyers looking for discounted goods and sellers being cautious. Attention should be paid to the methanol plants and shipping schedules in a certain Middle - East country [1]