碳酸锂日评：上方空间有限-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand are both strong, upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the macro - situation has improved, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction has weakened, the downstream restocking has slowed down, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - Prices: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on 2025 - 10 - 23 were 76,180 yuan/ton, 74,940 yuan/ton, 79,480 yuan/ton, and 77,120 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes compared to previous dates [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: On 2025 - 10 - 23, the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 490,920 lots (+114,471), and the open interest was 419,147 lots (+65,916) [1]. - Inventory: The inventory was - 260 tons, with a value of 28,759 tons on 2025 - 10 - 23, showing a decrease compared to previous dates [1]. - Spreads: There were differences in spreads such as near - month - consecutive - one, consecutive - one - consecutive - two, and consecutive - two - consecutive - three, with values of - 420 yuan/ton, 320 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on 2025 - 10 - 23 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - Lithium Minerals: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%), and other lithium minerals showed upward trends on 2025 - 10 - 23 compared to previous dates [1]. - Lithium Compounds: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds also had price changes on 2025 - 10 - 23. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Other Lithium - Related Products: The average prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also had corresponding price fluctuations [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and the price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rose [1]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in October [1]. 3.4 Inventory The registered warehouse receipts were 28,759 tons (- 260 tons), with de - stocking in social inventory, smelters, and downstream, while other inventories remained stable [1]. 3.5 Industry News On October 14, Hainan Mining held a shipment ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products at its Mali Buguoni lithium mine project. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be shipped from Buguoni to San Pedro Port in Cote d'Ivoire and then transported to Yangpu Port in Hainan by cargo ship. As of 2024, the estimated mineral resource volume within the mining right scope of the Mali Buguoni lithium mine under the JORC regulations was 31.9 million tons, with an average lithium carbonate grade of 1.00% [1].