国新国证期货早报-20251024

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On October 23, 2025, A-share market's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3922.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to 13025.45 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09% to 3062.16 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1643.9 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 23.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated widely on October 23, closing at 4606.35, up 13.78 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 23, the weighted index of coke was strong, closing at 1790.7, up 68.8 from the previous day [3]. - On October 23, the weighted index of coking coal continued to rebound, closing at 1271.4 yuan, up 59.5 from the previous day [4]. - For coke, the rising coking coal spot price has eroded the profits of coking enterprises, and some are still slightly loss - making. The coke demand from steel mills is mainly on - demand procurement, and the coke spot circulation is smooth. For coking coal, the overall domestic coal supply is stable, and the demand of coking enterprises is weak due to poor profitability [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by sufficient global sugar supply, the US sugar market declined slightly on Wednesday. However, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract rose on October 23, supported by stable spot prices and bargain - hunting. China's finished sugar production in September 2025 was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and the cumulative production from January to September was 10.984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [5]. Rubber - Supported by factors such as expectations of a new round of China - US trade consultations, positive global light - vehicle sales data in September, and rising crude oil prices, the Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on October 23. In September 2025, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume of global light vehicles was 94 million vehicles per year, with a year - on - year increase of 6.9% in that month and a 5% increase in cumulative sales from January to September [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 23, CBOT soybean futures closed up. Market predictions are that as of October 16, US soybean export sales were between 600,000 and 2 million tons. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is loose, and the supply of soybean meal also remains loose. The concern about the long - term supply gap due to the stagnant Sino - US soybean trade is decreasing, and the rebound space of soybean meal may be limited [8]. Live Hogs - On October 23, live hog futures fluctuated. The short - term price is supported by the increasing number of second - fattening hogs, but the supply pressure is high, and the terminal consumption is weak. The live hog market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [9]. Palm Oil - On October 23, palm oil futures continued to decline, but the decline slowed down. The import price inversion of near - term shipments of palm oil in China has widened [9]. Shanghai Copper - On October 23, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose. The price increase is supported by the tight global copper mine supply, low overseas inventories, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Future focus should be on US CPI data and China - US trade talks [10]. Iron Ore - On October 23, the main contract of iron ore 2601 closed up. The current iron ore price is in a volatile trend. With the shrinking profit of steel mills and the end of the peak season, the iron ore price may be affected [10]. Asphalt - On October 23, the main contract of asphalt 2601 rose. The supply of asphalt from local refineries in November will decrease significantly, and the cost support is strong in the near term. The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term [10]. Logs - On October 23, the spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a pattern of gradually reducing inventory [11]. Cotton - On the night of October 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13585 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 39 lots compared with the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton is concentrated at 6.2 - 6.4 yuan per kilogram. The peak season of downstream yarn mills has passed, and the off - season is approaching [12]. Steel - On October 23, the rb2601 contract closed at 3071 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3256 yuan/ton. The coking coal price is rising, and the second round of coke price increase is likely to be implemented. The steel price may fluctuate upward under high - cost support [12]. Alumina - On October 23, the ao2601 contract closed at 2838 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina market has a structural surplus. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable, and the price is under pressure [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 23, the al2512 contract closed at 21165 yuan/ton. Overseas aluminum supply is tight, but the rise of aluminum price is restricted by market sentiment. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is at a low level. The demand is cooling down [13].