镍与不锈钢日评：成本支撑走弱，不锈钢逢高沽空-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals of stainless steel are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the upside space of stainless - steel prices is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Nickel Futures: On October 23, 2025, for Shanghai nickel futures, the closing prices of different contracts had various changes. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 121150.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 93921.00 hands (+20070), and the open interest was 127005.00 hands (+5694). LME 3 - month nickel had a closing price (electronic - trading) of 15335.00 US dollars/ton, up 195.00 US dollars. The trading volume was 7337.00 hands (+5500) [2]. - Stainless - steel Futures: On October 23, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated upwards. The trading volume was 151385.00 hands (+52175), and the open interest was 166411.00 hands (-13119). The inventory of the previous - period exchange remained flat, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 621700.00 tons (+2300) [2]. - Spot Prices: For nickel, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122150.00 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13550.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory Data: The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 1053.00 million wet tons. The total inventory of stainless - steel spot was 925800.00 tons, showing a decrease of 10100.00 tons compared to the previous period [2]. Industry News - Australian Mining Project: Caedmon Mariot of an Australian mining company will conduct a general study and metallurgical test on its Mulga Tank nickel project, which is the largest nickel deposit in Australia with metal reserves exceeding 5 million tons. Western Mining Group has invested 10 million US dollars in the project, and it is expected to become a strategic asset in three to five years [2]. - Indonesian Mining Policy: The Indonesian government is tightening the application process for the Mineral Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) of mining enterprises. Enterprises need to meet administrative and technical requirements, including holding a forest - use license (PPKH) and paying a mine - restoration deposit at least one year before submitting the RKAB application [2]. Market Analysis - Nickel: On the supply side, nickel - ore prices were flat, port inventories decreased, nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased in October, and domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased with reduced export profits. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless - steel plant production, and alloy and electroplating demand all increased. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the previous - period exchange and LME decreased, while social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [2]. - Stainless Steel: On the supply side, stainless - steel production increased in October, and the production of 300 - series decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to short at high prices [2].